Which Quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?

What We're Looking For

When it comes to figuring out which first-round quarterbacks are most likely to succeed, their collegiate resumes absolutely matter. You just have to know what to look for and which benchmarks are associated with successful picks.

To get a good gauge on this, we can look back at recent first-round picks. Since 2000, there have been 53 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Because the 2018 class hasn't had many chances to show what they can do, we're going to exclude them, trimming the sample back down to 48 quarterbacks.

In order to judge which quarterbacks can be considered a "success," we're going to turn to numberFire's Total Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP is the metric we use to track the expected points added or subtracted on each play, giving us a good measure of which quarterbacks are most efficient. Total NEP also factors in the expected points a quarterback adds as a rusher, giving us an all-encompassing picture of the value they add to their team.

Because the NFL is radically different now than it was in 2000, we'll be focusing exclusively on where these quarterbacks have ranked in Total NEP on a yearly basis. If you can net a passer who consistently grades out well relative to his peers, you're likely pretty happy spending a first-round pick to get him.

Let's sort these 48 first-round quarterbacks into two separate, very basic categories: those who have logged at least one top-15 season in Total NEP and those who have not. This is a low bar for success, but 17 of our 48 quarterbacks failed to make the cut here.

Below is the average collegiate resume of the quarterbacks with at least one top-15 finish and those who never got to that mark. The "Games" column refers to the number of college games in which that quarterback attempted at least 10 passes. All other categories are their stats from their final season in college with "AY/A" referring to their adjusted yards per attempt and "Pass. Eff. Rat." referring to their passing efficiency rating.

ESPN's Total QBR is available only back to 2004, and it didn't seem to have major predictive value on prospects in the past. As such, we won't be including it here. However, it will be tossed into the breakdown of each of 2019's prospects because it does help account for the value they add as rushers.

In every category, those who wound up being successful had better marks. This should provide at least some evidence that collegiate stats do matter for quarterbacks.

Before we delve further into that, though, it's worth noting the massive gap between the draft slots of the two groups. If a player comes off the board early, he's more likely to be a success. Of our 17 total busts, only five were top-10 picks, and only three (Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, and Mark Sanchez) went in the top five.

This means we need to put weight in what scouts and NFL general managers say about these players. They're good at what they do, even if there are some misses. So, if the numbers say a player is a statistical darling but he winds up slipping to the fifth round, it's wise to view those numbers with a good bit of skepticism.

As long as scouts do deem a quarterback to be a worthy selection, though, it certainly appears as if we can put weight in what they did in college. This allows us to take a peek at the incoming crop of quarterbacks -- before the scouts make their final decisions -- and see which ones stand out in the categories that matter most.

But if we're setting statistical thresholds, we probably don't want to look at just the list of quarterbacks who have logged a single top-15 finish in Total NEP. That would mean players like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Matt Leinart, and David Carr would count as successes, and that's likely not a declaration we should want to make.

As such, let's look at quarterbacks who consistently are a cut above that. Of our 48 first-round picks, 11 have been in the top 10 in Total NEP in at least one-third of their qualified seasons. Instead of Leinart and Bortles, this is where we find guys like Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger, the true success stories among first-round picks. Here, the statistical bar goes up a bit.

Of this group, Matt Ryan is the only quarterback whose AY/A in his final college campaign was lower than 8.5, and only 3 of 11 had a final-year AY/A lower than 9.2. Because of this, that's going to be the stat we lean on most when doing our analysis.

In the two tables above, you'll notice that the "Games" category is relatively close, leaning slightly toward the more successful groups. That one requires a bit of extra context.

Last year, we looked at whether age matters for quarterback prospects. The answer was yes, especially when you pair their age with their experience levels coming out of college.

Essentially, games played matters across the board. But it matters far less for a younger prospect who may not have the requisite level of experience. If they're an older prospect -- coming off their age-22 or age-23 season -- and they don't have a ton of experience, the odds of finding success are much lower. That will be a key factor for at least one incoming quarterback prospect.

In other words, each of these data points are significant, especially when you toss in a bit extra context. We generally want quarterbacks who had roughly three years of starting experience, an AY/A above 9.0, and a passing efficiency rating somewhere in the range of 160.0.

For each prospect, we'll list a "top statistical comp," someone who had a statistical profile similar to them coming out of college. It's worth noting two things, though: this is based solely on their stats, and it will not take draft stock into account. So, if one player is compared to Michael Vick, it doesn't mean he runs like Vick or is destined to be the first overall pick. It simply means they had similar profiles in terms of their age, experience, and collegiate efficiency coming out. If the quarterback doesn't go in the first round, the comp will clearly carry less weight. This is moreso just for fun and for context.

With that in mind, let's dive into the 2019 class and see who comes out smelling the rosiest.