Fantasy Football: 5 Passing Games With the Most Available Volume in 2019
Baltimore Ravens
I mentioned in the last slide that Moncrief ranks second among free agent wideouts in both target and air yard market share. John Brown is the player ahead of him in both categories, having finished 2018 accounting for 17.9% of the Baltimore Ravens' targets and 32.4% of their air yards.
The fantasy value in the Ravens' passing attack completely disappeared when Lamar Jackson took over, but they were so absurdly run-heavy in that time (64% of their plays were runs after Jackson took over, the next-highest in that time was 54%) that we can expect some regression in 2019. Even if they remain the league's most run-heavy team, there should still be a big boost in passing volume.
Jackson did lean on Brown more than the other wideouts as well, and Brown's target share with Jackson (17.7%) was right in line with his season average, so the shift in quarterbacks doesn't change too much on that front.
The wide receiver situation in Baltimore is tricky. On the season, Michael Crabtree led the team with an 18.5% target market share, and Willie Snead tied Brown at 17.9%. There was really no clear pecking order among the top three.
Taking Brown out of the mix should clarify things a bunch, and both Snead and Crabtree could see some additional work. It might not be that clear, though.
The Ravens could save almost $5 million by cutting Crabtree, who turned in only 54 receptions, 607 yards and 3 scores last year, and will turn 32 this season -- so Snead is the only real lock to return.
Neither Crabtree or Snead profile to fill into Brown's role either, as Brown's 16.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) blows away Crabtree's 11.0 and Snead's 8.2. The team didn't go deep as often with Lamar Jackson at the helm, but Brown still posted a much higher aDOT (13.3 to Crabtree's 9.8 and Snead's 8.7) from Week 10 to 17.
If Baltimore doesn't add any kind of a deep threat, there could be some opportunity available for Chris Moore, who posted a 15.4-yard aDOT on 10 targets from Week 10 to 17, as well as an 11.9-yard mark on the season as a whole. He has only notched 79 targets over his first three NFL seasons, so he's certainly no guarantee to pick up the work, but he could be worth a late-round flier and a look in deeper leagues and dynasty formats.
If the Ravens do add a deep threat, that player may not have a ton of targets to work with (unless Crabtree is cut), but they could still have some big-play upside if they're available in later rounds of fantasy drafts.
