The Top 5 Potential 2015 NFL Draft Busts

Arik Armstead, Defensive Line, San Francisco 49ers

One of the crucial factors in the making of a “bust” is a player not being ready to perform at the NFL level when he is thrust into the limelight. This is the case of former Oregon Duck Arik Armstead, whose size and leverage indicate that he could become a premier edge-setting and power-rushing defensive lineman in the league in time.

The problem is that he is highly unrefined in his pass-rushing skills and still hasn’t quite grown into his frame and strength against the run. If he was able to sit behind a seasoned veteran and learn to polish his technique, this wouldn’t be an issue. With the decimation that has occurred to the 49ers’ front seven this offseason, though, Armstead is going to be called into service sooner rather than later. The Niners have slipped from top-five billing in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) the last few years, and will to be desperate to halt the slide even further. (NEP, by the way, is our signature metric for measuring a team or player's performance above or below expectation level. Read more about it in our glossary.)

Armstead’s rawness may never become refined if he isn’t allowed to study and broaden his skills.