7 Rookie Sleepers to Target in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Josh Robinson, RB, Indianapolis Colts

I absolutely love Josh Robinson at his current draft position. My passion for the Colts’ 6th-round pick is seriously getting out of hand. He’s slow, short, had a miserable NFL combine, and yet someone should stop me before I start drafting him in the first round of rookie drafts!

So what in the world is a slow, late-round draft pick doing on every one of my dynasty teams?

What’s the Situation?

Let’s start with the opportunity in Indianapolis. In 2014, the duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson combined for only 944 yards on a team that really wanted to be a power running team. Both players were jettisoned after the season, leaving Dan Herron as the only experienced running back on the roster.

That is until the Colts began shopping for players at the Coral Gables Nursing Home in south Florida, signing 32-year-old Frank Gore to “shore” up the position. Yes, Gore has consistently eluded the cliff most running backs fall off of at that age, and analysts have been attempting to replace him for years now to no avail. But we are still talking about a player who, in terms of Net Expected Points (or NEP, our in-house metric that compares a player or team’s production to league expectation level), has posted a negative Rushing NEP score in four of the past five seasons behind an offensive line that most would consider far superior to what he will have in Indianapolis.

Gore will contribute in 2015 for sure, but we are talking about an aging back with bad knees who hasn’t been that great in the past few years. The opportunity is there for the taking, especially with Andrew Luck at the helm of an offense that should consistently see favorable fronts.

So Who Is Josh Robinson?

The 5’8’’, 217-pound Robinson was a dominant cog in the Mississippi State Bulldogs’ rushing attack in 2014, rushing for 1,203 yards on only 190 carries (6.3 yards per carry) and scoring 11 touchdowns. Watch him play against SEC competition like Kentucky or LSU and you will see a player who just refuses to be tackled, running through, around, and past NFL competition on a consistent basis.

With a running style that mirrors the Maurice Jones Drew “bowling ball” style that wears defenses out, Robinson ranked second in Pro Football Focus’ “Elusive Rating” among draft-eligible players, ranking just behind Todd Gurley in yards after contact. He forced 58 missed tackles and showed a consistent ability to break long runs against top competition, despite subpar long speed.

Robinson also proved to be a great receiver out of the backfield, securing 28 of his 39 targets and averaging 13.2 yards per reception, higher totals than a 2013 Todd Gurley (11.9), Duke Johnson (11.1) and Melvin Gordon (8.1). While not a massive part of the passing attack at Mississippi State, Robinson was a reliable if not explosive receiver in their system and demonstrated the ability to be a very good feature NFL back.

And then he went to the NFL combine.

A 4.7-second 40-yard dash time quickly had scouts and analysts pegging him as not athletic enough to be a productive NFL player, causing him to drop to the 6th round of the NFL draft and into the laps of a powerful NFL offense. While his 40 time wasn’t impressive, his production and ability to break tackles at an exceptional level in a power conference is. He did improve his 40 time to 4.65 at his pro day, but his measurables aren’t why you draft him. You draft him because he’s the type of player that teammates respect, opponents hate and fans root for.

Drawing Conclusions

Robinson is going to run harder than anyone else on the team. He's going to frustrate defenders who will get sick of tackling him and endear himself to his offensive linemen and coaches for always getting that extra yard and making something out of nothing.

With Gore in the twilight of his career (for the third straight season, I believe) and no longer the efficient player he was early in his career, the door is wide open for a young player like Robinson to take the reigns of the running game in an explosive offense. It may not happen immediately, as the team looks for stability and veteran leadership to protect Luck, but Robinson could carve out a goal line and short yardage role sooner rather than later, making himself a valuable commodity in fantasy circles.

He may not be a sexy back, but he's the type of player I want on my dynasty team.