5 Overvalued Wide Receivers Heading Into Your Fantasy Football Drafts

Allen Robinson

Much has been written about Allen Robinson hype train this offseason. Reports from out of training camp are glowing about Robinson’s on-field prowess. Our own Joe Juan recently compared his physical measurables to that of Alshon Jeffery, a top-10 target among wide receivers in upcoming fantasy drafts. Robinson was also a frequent guest on plenty of fantasy sites’ “Weekly Waiver Wire” columns last season until he was sidelined by injury after Week 10.

Robinson did average a healthy eight targets per game when he saw action last season, so Blake Bortles clearly developed a trust in him that should carry over into 2015.

So what’s the problem? Well, Blake Bortles.

Look, young whippersnappers, I remember a time before the likes of Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson transformed perceptions where it took quarterbacks more than one season to develop into solid field generals. So Blake Bortles’, umm, awful performance last year may not be indicative of his career trajectory. But to expect exponential growth out of Bortles this season would probably be unrealistic. And Bortles was bad enough last year that significant improvement in 2015 would still result in a below average quarterback.

On a per-drop back basis, Bortles compiled a horrendous -0.18 Passing NEP. This means Bortles effectively lost his team a point every 5.5 throws. Yeah, gross. Bortles’s 2014 was not only bad for last year: it was historically bad. Of the 293 quarterback seasons since 2000 that included at least 450 drop backs from a given quarterback, Bortles’s 2014 ranked 290th. So yeah, Bortles has a long way to go before he can be considered anything close to reliable.

Bortles’s struggles are reflected in Robinson’s efficiency last season. Among all receivers with at least 80 targets last season, Robinson finished 52nd out of 58 qualifying receivers with a 0.51 Reception NEP per target.

Much of this blame can go to Bortles, so if he improves, Robinson likely will too. The addition of Julius Thomas as a weapon could also help create some space for Robinson to do more work.

With Robinson currently coming off the board as the 31st-highest receiver taken on average according to ADP, numberFire projects a much more modest showing as the 44th-best fantasy receiver in 2015. Robinson might have the talent to pay off his ADP, but until Bortles becomes a better quarterback, or at least a serviceable one, I can’t invest this kind of draft capital in him.