3 Tight Ends Who Can Outperform Their Fantasy Football Draft Cost

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

The anticipated demise of Cowboys’ tight end Jason Witten has been an annual preseason talking point in the fantasy community for the last few seasons. And although Witten’s raw statistical output has been on the decline for the last three seasons, he still finished as the TE9 last season in PPR scoring.

With Witten now 33 years old, the narrative will only grow stronger for the coming age-cliff collapse, but we here at numberFire have him ranked as the TE4 in our year-long projections. Currently coming off the board as the TE12, he is an obvious value.

Using our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics, a measure of how a player’s performance either positively or negatively affects his team’s overall score, Witten’s efficiency has not shown much decline at all. Last season, he finished fourth in both Reception NEP and Reception NEP per target among 17 tight ends with at least 50 catches.

Plus, there are also a few factors that may hint at an increased target share for Witten in 2015: Dez Bryant’s unresolved contract situation, Demarco Murray’s departure, the ambiguous replacement situation for Murray, and the rapport between Witten and Tony Romo that has been built over 11 years.

Finding a mid-level TE1 at the end of the 10th round is exactly what the anti-Gronk crowd should be searching for, and Witten may just be it.