5 Quarterbacks Who Should Outperform Their Fantasy Football Cost This Year
Jay Cutler
Even though Jay Cutler doesn’t care if you think he doesn’t care, he’s very likely to significantly outperform his ADP. Currently being drafted as the 21st quarterback, Cutler is projected to finish 15th in fantasy scoring at the position.
Cutler’s 2014 season is the embodiment of the competing interests of real football analysis and fantasy football performance. In real football terms, Cutler was bad. Like, really bad. In fact, in real football terms, Cutler’s best two years were easily his first two years as a starter in Denver. You’re aware that he hasn't been a Bronco in over six years right?
| Season | Pass NEP | Pass NEP Rank | Fantasy PPG | Fantasy PPG Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 55.90 | 10th | 17.58 | 17th |
| 2008 | 122.38 | 4th | 22.39 | 3rd |
| 2009 | -9.57 | 21st | 19.66 | 11th |
| 2010 | -6.74 | 24th | 18.99 | 21st |
| 2011 | 18.41 | 16th | 17.95 | 19th |
| 2012 | -9.88 | 24th | 16.73 | 25th |
| 2013 | 19.12 | 18th | 19.9 | 21st |
| 2014 | -1.24 | 26th | 22.25 | 9th |
But in terms of fantasy points per game, 2014 was Cutler’s second best season in his career, and he delivered a top-10 finish by this stat for his owners. Cutler’s fantasy resurgence in 2014 could have been related to a number of factors.
One, Marc Trestman’s offenses are notoriously pass happy, which may have fed the beast that is Cutler’s all-in gunslinger mentality. This of course led to 18 interceptions but also allowed Cutler to post his highest touchdown total since 2008.
It remains to be seen whether the more conservative approach often touted by new head coach John Fox will result in decreased pass attempts but improved efficiency. The numberFire algorithms, however, project Cutler to attempt about 571 passes in 2015, 10 more passes than he attempted in 2014.
Secondly, Alshon Jeffery remained the beast that he was when Josh McCown took over Cutler’s duties in 2013 due to injury. Jeffrey put up more than 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns in 2014, and that trend should continue.
The absence of Brandon Marshall might hurt Cutler due to their familiarity going back to Cutler’s days as a Denver Bronco, but there were signs last season that Cutler and Marshall
With Marshall’s exit however, Cutler is getting reliable slot receiver and former Broncos teammate, Eddie Royal, as well as rookie Kevin White, a big-bodied speedster with freakish strength.
And let’s not forget that one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, Matt Forte, is a weapon Cutler can and will use frequently in the screen game.
Despite what is likely to be another subpar real football season, Cutler has the ammunition to exceed his fantasy draft day expectation. Use him as a backup quarterback or spot start in particularly juicy situations and you won’t be sorry. Only Bears fans will.
