5 Quarterbacks Who Should Outperform Their Fantasy Football Cost This Year
Matt Ryan
Much like his NFC South compatriot, Brees, Matt Ryan is being selected later than numberFire thinks he should. According to FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Ryan is being drafted as the eighth quarterback, but our algorithms project him to be the fifth-best fantasy quarterback for the upcoming season.
I can actually understand the trepidation in drafting Ryan; when you watch Falcons games you often see Ryan get hurried, often due to a porous offensive line.
In fact, according to ProFootballFocus, the Falcons’ offensive line has given up the most and third-most pressure situations (sacks, hits, and hurries allowed) in the league in 2013 and 2014 respectively. But much of this decline was injury-related, and with the development of Jake Matthews protecting Ryan’s blind-side in his sophomore season, and a little more luck on dodging injuries, the Falcons have reason to believe that their position as a bottom-feeding offensive line unit is temporary.
But even with an offensive line that I could have had a chance to walk on to (and subsequently get crushed), Ryan still managed to put up big-time numbers since 2010. Having posted more than 25 touchdowns and 4,000 yards in each of the last four seasons, Ryan has shown a level of consistency that fantasy football players value in their quarterback, ranking as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of these seasons.
| Season | Yards | TD's | Fantasy PPG | QB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 4,177 | 29 | 21.58 | 8 |
| 2012 | 4,719 | 32 | 24 | 5 |
| 2013 | 4,515 | 26 | 22.44 | 9 |
| 2014 | 4,694 | 28 | 21.78 | 7 |
We currently project a monster year for Ryan, with 4,926 yards and 33 touchdowns, both of which would be career highs, but both of which are definitely attainable should the offensive line gel more this season. In fact, our math projects Ryan to score only 11 fantasy points fewer than Andrew Luck all season. Luck is currently coming of draft boards as the overall 13th pick. Ryan? 72nd.
With one of the most dynamic receivers in the game in Julio Jones at his disposal, one of the most underrated veteran assets in Roddy White, and rookie Justin Hardy, who figures to fill in nicely in Harry Douglas’s previous role as slot receiver, the chances of Ryan outperforming his draft price are quite high, and a league-leading fantasy season isn’t out of the question. Wait until Round 6 to scoop up Ryan, and you won’t be disappointed.
