4 Wide Receivers Worth a Late-Round Pick in Your Fantasy Football Drafts
Nick Toon
With the exit of Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham, the opportunity for Nick Toon to expand his role in the Saints offense has opened up. Toon was actually fairly impressive in the limited amount of work he’s received in 2014. Of course, Drew Brees has a knack for getting the most out of his receivers, but that’s partly the reason why Toon is such an interesting flier come draft day despite his limited production in the NFL to date.
| Season | Rec | Reception NEP | Reception NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 4 | 4.76 | 0.40 |
| 2014 | 17 | 17.89 | 0.78 |
With albeit limited work in 2014, Toon produced an impressive 0.78 Reception NEP per target. For context, the league-wide average among wide receivers has steadily remained at 0.66 Reception NEP per target since 2012. Despite the small sample size, Toon’s improvement from 2013 to 2014 and his above average efficiency show that he is at least deserving of more targets. And he is set to get them.
Rotoviz author Anthony Amico recently studied the target distribution typically afforded the WR3 in New Orleans. With Graham on the field, Brees directed an average of 8.7% of his targets to the Saints' number-three receiver in the last four seasons; this figure stands to rise without Graham hogging such a large portion of the Saints target distribution. As such it’d be reasonable to expect Toon to get at least 10% of the team’s targets.
numberFire currently projects Toon to produce 38 catches for 437 yards and 3 touchdowns. While these numbers might be middling, it’s wise to consider the upside and potential for Toon exceeding these projections.
Toon, a 6’4’’, big-bodied receiver, is all but penciled in for a role in a dynamic Saints offense, with the two receivers in front of him having potential vulnerabilities; Brandin Cooks was unable to stay on the field for his inaugural season, and Marques Colston is 32 years old. If one of these players goes down for any period of time next year, Toon could capitalize and reel in even more targets.
Toon is currently going undrafted in 10-team leagues. Grab him with your last pick, and you’ll have a receiver with a decent floor given his projected workload -- and upside to boot.
