5 Mid-Round Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 4.08

Andre Ellington’s inability to stay healthy is well documented. He missed four games last year due to injury and has currently been dealing with hamstring issues during training camp. In fact, Sports Injury Predictor has Ellington as the most likely running back to be injured this season at a 90 percent probability. Now, obviously, take that for what it’s worth. But it does show the stigma -- deserved or not -- Ellington carries.

However, injuries, while a legitimate concern, are very hard to predict. And although Ellington’s injury history and concerns should definitely be weighed in a decision, it’s definitely not the end-all-be-all. But you know what is? Production. And Ellington’s was poor last year.

Out of 67 running backs with at least 60 carries, Ellington ranked in the bottom 10 in Rushing NEP per carry with a -0.14 clip. If that wasn’t enough, his poor efficiency, matched with his decently high volume created a disaster of a season for the Cardinals’ running back as he finished with a Rushing NEP of -28.34 -- dead last among all players last season.

More isn’t always necessarily better. In real life terms, Ellington ended the 2014 season with a 3.3 yards per carry average. To put this in perspective, of backs with at least 50 carries, that was higher than only Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart, Alfred Blue and Ben Tate.

Even his receiving game was just barley average from an efficiency standpoint. In 2014, 32 running backs had at least 40 targets last year. Of those backs, Ellington finished middle of the pack at 17. Not to mention his workload is being threatened by rookie David Johnson. Johnson is 6’1”, 224 pounds compared to Ellington’s 5’9”, 199 pounds. Built much better for the punishment a running back takes in between the tackles, Johnson only missed one game during his four years at University of Northern Iowa.

Not only is Johnson a threat to steal early down work, he’s a threat to steal some passing downs from Ellington -- Ellington’s saving grace -- as the converted wide receiver was widely regarded as one of the best pass catching backs in the 2015 NFL Draft. In camp this year, “no one has really been able to cover him.”

Even though Ellington is penciled in as the Cardinals lead back for now, he has a lot working against his favor. I’d be wary of drafting Ellington at what would be an RB2 price.