5 Mid-Round Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 8.01

Mike Wallace, while not near the extent to which DeSean Jackson is, is another boom-or-bust player. Wallace’s boom weeks are solid. Last year, he finished in the top-24 seven times and had two top-five finishes included in that. He had an average finish of 14th in the weeks he finished as a WR2.

However, like Jackson, in the weeks he failed to record a top-24 score, Wallace was essentially useless to your team. He had nine weeks where he fell outside the WR2 range, and in those weeks he averaged a finish as the 49th best receiver. Not even remotely usable.

While worrisome, his up-and-down scoring isn’t the only thing deterring me from Wallace. In fact, there are a couple of things.

First, his red zone usage last year was very abnormal. Wallace had the most red zone targets of his career last year with 19 -- tied for the team lead on the Miami Dolphins with tight end Charles Clay. His average in his previous five years was only 11. Also nine of Wallace’s 10 touchdowns came from inside the red zone, with five coming from 10 yards or closer -- an absurdly high rate for receiver more known as a deep threat.

I would suspect those red zone and goal-line targets should deviate more towards the mean this year in Minnesota, as the Vikings have 6’2” wide receiver Charles Johnson and 6’6” tight end Kyle Rudolph starting opposite of him.

Plus, despite scoring 10 touchdowns, his per-target efficiency was bad, indicating that his non-touchdown catches were very worrisome. And I should also mention a guy by the name of Adrian Peterson is back.

Secondly, Wallace has legitimate concern for competition in targets with up-and-coming receiver Charles Johnson. Johnson, from Week 11 on, had as many top-12 finishes (2) as Wallace had all season. Johnson has also reportedly been building a fantastic rapport with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, as cited by the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Matt Vensel who wrote, “Johnson is the receiver Bridgewater trusts the most.”

Wallace finished 2014 with a Reception NEP of 77.23, which landed him at 32 among receivers. This was all while tying a career-high in touchdowns, most coming from an explosion in red zone targets. Wallace’s price isn’t exactly what I’d call steep, but he’s the type of player I’d avoid on my team for the many reasons listed.

Even with one of his better career years, he was still inconsistent, and I expect that trend to continue -- something I don’t feel the same for red zone targets or touchdowns.