The 7 Fantasy Football Sleepers No One is Talking About
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
Note: Jay Ajayi suffered a crack rib in Thursday night's contest, so he more than likely isn't a redraft fantasy target.
Jay Ajayi was widely considered to be a top-three talent in the 2015 NFL draft, behind only Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. He was a creative and powerful between the tackles runner with the speed to get to the edge and an exceptional pass catcher out of the backfield, profiling as a true workhorse back.
But reports about a degenerative knee condition surfaced in the spring, causing his draft stock to plummet until he was finally selected in the fifth round by the Miami Dolphins. The knee injury is expected to limit the length of his NFL career but isn't viewed by most to be an injury that will affect him in the short term.
Incumbent starter Lamar Miller is an effective back who the coaches have always seemed to dislike, sharing carries with the ineffective Daniel Thomas in 2013 and starting the season behind Knowshon Moreno in 2014 until an injury forced the Dolphins to feature Miller.
Yet, despite no real competition in the backfield last season, Miller only received 216 carries all year and never had more than 19 in a game. While he was effective as a runner, posting a Rushing NEP per rush of 0.06 (sixth in the NFL in 2014), the team seemed reticent to rely on him as a focal point of their offense. The former Hurricanes back is a quicker player who doesn't run with the power the coaching staff seemingly prefers, which makes Ajayi, a naturally more powerful back, a great option to supplant Miller as the primary back for in Miami.
Currently the team lists Damien Williams as the second team running back, but he is averaging just 3.1 yards this preseason after averaging just 3.4 during his rookie season. His rise up the depth chart has more to do injuries that sidelined Ajayi and rookie mistakes in pass protection that had the coaches down on him.
He responded in a big way on Thursday, with 103 total yards on just 11 touches, demonstrating his athleticism and versatility as both a runner and a receiver. He is by far the more talented player, and should quickly ascend to the backup role if he hasn't done so already with his play on the field.
While a timeshare is likely, the Dolphins are looking to feature a run-heavy attack that is attempting to mirror the Chip Kelly system in Philladelphia, a team that also jettisoned a talented "elusive" player in LeSean McCoy for the decisive, power running of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Miami ranked only 22nd in the NFL last season in rushing attempts, a number they would love to improve upon if they can find a power back to feature.
Miller won't disappear in 2014 without an injury, but don't be surprised if Ajayi carves out a role for himself as the powerful complement at some point in the season. The rookie is a back I love to target late in drafts -- and not just as a handcuff for Miller but as a potential breakout candidate as the season progresses.
