The 7 Fantasy Football Sleepers No One is Talking About
Josh Robinson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The 5’8’’, 217-pound Josh Robinson was a dominant cog in the Mississippi State Bulldogs’ rushing attack in 2014, rushing for 1,203 yards on only 190 carries (6.3 yards per carry) and scoring 11 touchdowns. Watch him play against SEC competition like Kentucky or LSU, and you will see a player who just refuses to be tackled, running through, around, and past NFL competition on a consistent basis.
With a running style that mirrors the Maurice Jones-Drew “bowling ball” style that wears defenses out, Robinson ranked second in Pro Football Focus’ “Elusive Rating” among draft-eligible players, ranking just behind Todd Gurley in yards after contact. He forced 58 missed tackles and showed a consistent ability to break long runs against top competition, despite subpar long speed.
Robinson also proved to be a great receiver out of the backfield, securing 28 of his 39 targets and averaging 13.2 yards per reception, higher totals than a 2013 Todd Gurley (11.9), Duke Johnson (11.1) and Melvin Gordon (8.1).
In 2014, the duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson combined for only 944 yards on a team that really wanted to be a power running team. Both players were jettisoned after the season, leaving Dan Herron as the only experienced running back on the roster.
That is, until the Colts began shopping for players at the Coral Gables Nursing Home in south Florida, signing 32-year-old Frank Gore to “shore” up the position. Yes, Gore has consistently eluded the cliff most running backs fall off of at that age, and analysts have been attempting to replace him for years now to no avail. According to Net Expected Points (NEP), our our in-house metric that compares a player's production to league expectation level, Gore has posted a negative Rushing NEP score in four of the past five seasons behind an offensive line that most would consider far superior to what he will have in Indianapolis. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
With Frank Gore in the twilight of his career and no longer the efficient player he was early in his career, the door is wide open for a young player like Robinson to take the reins of the running game in an explosive offense. It may not happen immediately, as the team looks for stability and veteran leadership to protect Luck, but Robinson could carve out a goal line and short yardage role sooner rather than later, making himself a valuable commodity in fantasy circles.
Gore will contribute in 2015 for sure, but we are talking about an aging back with bad knees who hasn’t been that great in the past few years. The opportunity is there for the taking, especially with Andrew Luck at the helm of an offense that should consistently see favorable fronts.
He may not be a sexy back, but Robinson is the type of player I’m watching closely in redraft.
