7 Fantasy Football Studs Who Started Slow in Week 1: Will They Rebound?

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

It was an inauspicious debut for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings offense on Monday night, and the player many had pegged as the top overall pick in fantasy draft finished with only 31 yards on 10 carries and no touchdowns on the ground.

While the offensive line, playcalling and passing game didn't do him any favors (he only had four carries at halftime), nothing about his performance on the field looked promising. A year off from football can make a player look rusty, and perhaps that was a fact that was overlooked alongside the "running angry" narrative.

But statistics are not the only way we can evaluate player performance. At numberFire we have a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP) which compares a player's production to league expectation level. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

In terms of Rushing NEP per rush, he had a similar score (-0.09) to Benny Cunningham and Ronnie Hillman, and he rarely looked like the elite player he has long been.

The biggest worry for Peterson's value has to be the play of second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who finished 33rd in the NFL in Passing NEP per play with -0.35 after one week. Only Blake Bortles (-0.44) and Joe Flacco (-0.47) were worse this past weekend. His inability to move the offense limited the opportunities the team had to feed Peterson the ball and work him into the game plan.

While it's too early to say that Peterson is clearly in decline, it does seem that Bridgewater is not ready to take considerable pressure off the star running back each and every week. But Peterson has succeeded with Christian Ponder under center, and it is reasonable to expect him to rebound as he knocks off some of the early rust. Expect the Vikings to feed Peterson the ball early and often in Week 2, where we can perhaps learn more about whether or not his best days are behind him.

For now, owners should wait on Peterson and this offense. The 49ers might be better on defense than people thought, and Peterson will get his carries moving forward. He may not be due for a monster season that many expected, but volume should still allow him to be a top 12 running back this season.