5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense
This feels super chalky, so I apologize for that. That's why it's not one of the top four options for the week. The upside in this matchup, though, is way too big to simply ignore, and I think we can still catch some advantages in it. Allow me to explain.
The Falcons have been tearing stuff up this year, and they currently sit third in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. Washington, on the other hand, is 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. That's exactly what we're looking for in exploiting a matchup.
There are a few things that are working in favor of targeting the Falcons' passing offense. First, people are likely going to want to get shares of Freeman after what he has done the past two weeks. I can't blame them. He has been fully ign'ant. However, Washington is third in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. That could force the Falcons to attack via the air, giving the leg up to the passing game. If people invest in Freeman, they aren't likely to have ownership elsewhere. That's where we can pounce.
Second, the most obvious target in this -- the aforementioned Quintorris Lopez Jones -- is coming off of a down week. That could steer people off of him if they're bitter from the output. Even when you include that game, Jones' last eight games would put him on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards if you extrapolate it over a full season. Only 1,091 yards over eight games? Nah. You definitely don't want a piece of that.
If you want to save some cash, Leonard Hankerson is also an intriguing option. Over the past three games, he has been targeted 11, 6, and 8 times respectively. He's currently fifth in Reception NEP per target among the 54 wide receivers with at least 20 targets. He's combining increased volume with efficiency, yet he'll still only run you $6,000 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings. That's a bargain, bruh or bruhette.
With all of this said, I don't think I'd be super likely to roster Matt Ryan this weekend. On FanDuel, he's $8,300, meaning I could pay just $500 more and snag Brady. That seems to be the superior option. On DraftKings, he's a bit easier to pick at $6,700, but even then, Palmer is $100 cheaper. That should drive his ownership down, but I still think I'd prefer to roster Palmer in those circumstances, with all things considered. Ryan's certainly not a bad play by any means; I just think there are potentially better options on the board.