5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
New England Patriots Rushing Offense
Tom Brady has been absurdly good in 2015. He's currently fourth in Passing NEP per play among the 37 quarterbacks with at least 40 drop backs. When you consider the volume he has been putting out there as well, this efficiency becomes even more impressive. I'd contend that the running backs have been even better.
Right now, there are 54 running backs who have attempted at least 20 rushes. Of the top three running backs in Rushing NEP per play among this group, two of them are Patriots.
LeGarrette Blount -- largely because of his nose for the end zone -- leads all rushers with 0.30 Rushing NEP per play. He only has 20 carries on the season, but he has certainly made the most of them. With the Patriots' implied Vegas total at 29, you know they're going to have touchdown opportunities. There's a good chance it'll be Blount getting those carries.
Even though Blount is the goal-line back, that really doesn't eliminate Dion Lewis from being an option. He is third in Rushing NEP per play at 0.23, even though he doesn't get the inflation from the goal-line carries that Blount sees. Basically, he has just been really good this year. When you add in his 19 targets, it's easy to see why both Blount and Lewis can be options in the same week.
These two backs find themselves in a positive spot this week. Remember the Devonta Freeman awakening in Week 3? That came against these Dallas Cowboys. They sit 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play entering Sunday's contest, a more than favorable ranking against the team that sits first on the offensive side.
Between these two in cash games, Lewis appears to be the superior option. Even though the Patriots are favored by nine points, that doesn't mean they're a lock to pull away from the get go, especially on the road. When Blount had his breakout, Lewis was able to hit value in the first half because of his usage and effectiveness. This is what makes him the safer option; if the game remains close, Lewis is more likely to be in the game than Blount.
That said, Blount is a great tourney option. If the game does get out of hand, you can bet your bottom the Pats are going to let the bruiser do his thang on the field. When he does that, the point potential out of this pup is quite pleasing.