5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Chicago Bears Passing Offense
Not too long ago, the Chicago Bears seemed to find themselves on the other side of this matchups column consistently. The defense was struggling, the offense was ravaged by injuries, and the losses were piling up. Not anymore.
This is a totally different unit than we saw in September and October. The Bears find themselves favored by seven at home over a San Francisco 49ers team whose struggles are even greater than those the Bears experienced previously. Everything is adding up for a solid day for the Bears all around.
Looking at Chicago's offensive stats overall can be misleading as Jimmy Clausen was nothing short of abominable when he was at the helm. Things have gone a bit more smoothly with Jay Cutler calling the shots.
Cutler is having -- by far -- his best season in a Bears' uniform. He is currently ninth in Passing NEP per drop back of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, and that includes the four games in which he played without Alshon Jeffery. This is a whole new kind of Cutler we're seeing. He's still brimming with DGAF, but at least he's doing so efficiently.
If you look at what Cutler has done in the fantasy realm this year, it's not overly impressive. He has been consistent for the most part, but is it enough to sell you on buying in a tournament?
For me, it is. Again, all of this is heavily dependent on context. Going back to Jeffery, in the six games in which he has played, Cutler has averaged 18.52 FanDuel points per game. That has dropped to 14.13 points per game with Jeffery out. Then you add in the boost he gets from facing San Francisco, and you get an intriguing option.
On the year, the 49ers have played five road games. In those five contests, they have allowed an average of 23.36 FanDuel points per game to the opposing quarterback, with three of those quarterbacks finishing in the top three in weekly scoring. One of the others was Nick Foles. Quarterbacks have had huge amounts of success against them on the road, even if it hasn't come with volume. Cutler is a cheap option with a great floor and good upside this week.
Since we've been dancing around him the whole time, Jeffery is clearly a top target a wide receiver this week. In every game in which he has played at least 60 percent of the snaps, he has been targeted at least 11 times. If it weren't for the injuries, I can guarantee you his price would be higher than $7,700 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings. He historically hasn't performed as well when the team has been favored, but his current market share is too stupidly high to ignore.
If Jeffery's ownership is too high for you to stomach, I wouldn't be opposed to using either Martellus Bennett or Zach Miller, dependent on Bennett's health. The top tight end on the team has seen a consistent number of targets each week this year, and the Bears' implied team total is high enough to hint that they'll see red-zone opportunities. The 49ers have been okay against opposing tight ends this year, but at their price tags, Bennett and Miller aren't bad pivots in a tournament.
