5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense

I don't know about y'all, but when I think "tremendous upside," I think Alex Smith. Danger. Risk. Potential. You need not look further.

Although that is partially in jest, I am quite enamored with the Kansas City Chiefs this week. I think that both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware are viable, but ambiguity about who will be the lead back makes me a bit nervous. That's not a good enough reason to turn to looking at the aerial attack, but the Oakland Raiders' pass defense is.

Oakland enters Week 13 ranked 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. It was even more grim than that prior to last week, but a good ol' monsoon passing through Nashville gave them a boost. Even with that, the success of passing games against them continued.

In the 11 games the Raiders have played, nine quarterbacks have scored at least 18.2 FanDuel points against them. The only two who didn't were Peyton Manning and Teddy Bridgewater. Smith has performed well beyond those two this year.

Smith currently sits 20th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. It's certainly not great, but of the quarterbacks that have found success against Oakland this year, only three have been better in this department than Smith. Additionally, Smith has been consistent in fantasy this year, logging at least 13.3 points in every game except for one.

Obviously, the concern with Smith -- despite the introduction of this section -- is his upside. Can he log enough points to win you a tournament?

Given his price, I think he could easily hit value in a tournament. I often want to very much exceed that value with my quarterbacks, and I'm not certain Smith can do that. However, given Smith's consistency and the matchup, I don't think you'd be crazy to use him in a cash game. It may sound dumb, and maybe it is, but I think he's safe enough to warrant consideration there.

The true upside here appears to be in Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Maclin had been largely dormant the few weeks prior to last week, when he busted out for 9 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. Even when you factor in the reduced role, he has still seen 24.71 percent of the team's targets this season with double digit targets in four games. His workload concerns make him too risky for cash, but he can be a nice pivot off of Martavis Bryant and others in a tournament.

The Raiders' struggles against tight ends have been much documented, so I don't feel the need to delve too much into that here. Just know: they bad. That's good for Kelce.

Kelce's overall fantasy production this year may be just a tad bit disappointing given his lofty expectations. That said, he has seen 22.94 percent of the team's targets this year, averaging 7.09 per game. The reason that his fantasy production has lagged this year is that he has only hauled in four touchdowns. The Raiders have also given up four touchdowns to tight ends this year. Back-up tight ends, that is. That number climbs to 11 when you include the starters, or one per game. Kelce's floor and upside combo make him intriguing this week, as long as his ownership stays low enough.