5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14

Denver Broncos Rushing Offense

Didn't think you would have seen this in a piece on efficiency four weeks ago, did you? You're certainly not alone there, but things have been drastically better for the Denver Broncos' rushing offense since Brock Osweiler took over command.

The season-long numbers will show you that the Broncos still rank 26th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. However, if we narrow the scope to the past three weeks, we see a totally different picture.

In those games, C.J. Anderson has turned 34 carries into 8.57 Rushing NEP to go with a 47.06 Rushing Success Rate. Ronnie Hillman hasn't been as successful with -4.38 Rushing NEP on 54 carries and a 33.33 Rushing Success Rate, but this offense appears as if it can have success on the ground when put in the right position.

The issue here is health. Anderson missed practice on Wednesday, and his status appears pretty cloudy. Hillman didn't practice, either, but his prospects appear more optimistic. The ideal situation would be if Anderson were able to go as he has been incredibly effective of late, but I may still invest in the offense even if he sits.

The Oakland Raiders have certainly struggled against the pass, but they also rank 27th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. The Broncos are favored by 8.5 points, so we could see a continuation of their recent run-centric game plan. That volume may allow Hillman to overcome his inefficiency for a nice fantasy output with the game script and matchup combo.

I'd still consider Hillman if Anderson were out, but I'd almost prefer they both sat to give Juwan Thompson a crack. Thompson logged 54 carries last year and finished with 10.81 Rushing NEP and a 57.41 Rushing Success Rate. His 13 carries this year have turned into -1.45 Rushing NEP, but it's hard to draw too many conclusions from either of these.

The reason you'd need to consider Thompson if he starts is the price. He's $4,600 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings. In this matchup with the potential for heavy volume, that's absurd. Obviously, he's only in play if both Anderson and Hillman are out, but at that point, you'd want some serious exposure to Thompson.

What I'd recommend overall here is tracking practice reports closely the rest of the week. If it looks like Anderson will play, go with him. If Hillman appears in line to start without Anderson, then cautiously invest in him. Thompson quickly becomes a must-play if both are unable to practice by Friday. As with the Chiefs, I'd try to get exposure here however possible as the upside is considerable.