5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15

Minnesota Vikings Rushing Offense

I can almost guarantee you that you won't find Adrian Peterson at low ownership this week. This is one of those instances where I'm more than okay with that due to the elite floor and ceiling combo he appears to present.

When I'm selecting my running backs, I want them to check four boxes: I want them to be facing a poor rush defense while playing at home in a game in which they are favored. The final check box is that team being favored by at least five points, as running backs see a significant increase in fantasy production once the spread gets that high. The only two teams that check all four boxes this week are the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks, and Bryce Brown isn't available in the player pool on either FanDuel or DraftKings. Let's ride with AD all day.

Peterson and the Vikings will be squaring off against the Chicago Bears this week. Although the Cleveland Browns are widely-accepted as having an atrocious rush defense, it is actually the Bears who are last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. The Vikings are fourth on the offensive side of things, adding another mark in Peterson's favor.

If you look at raw fantasy points allowed to running backs this season, the Bears only rank 16th, potentially down-selling how perfect this matchup is. A big part of the reason for that is opposing running backs only have five rushing touchdowns against them, tied for the 24th highest total in the league. Teddy Bridgewater ranks 28th in the league in red-zone pass attempts, so if the Vikings find the end zone, it's going to be on the ground. Peterson could hand the Bears some serious points-allowed regression this week if he can hit paydirt.

At the beginning of this, I mentioned Peterson's ownership. Although I think that it will be high, it likely won't be as high as it should be. The fantasy points allowed aspect may scare some. Others may see the allure of the lower-priced running backs stepping into larger roles. Finally, a look at Peterson's game logs may be a minor deterrent. Paying such a high price for a guy who has totaled only 17.5 points on FanDuel over his past two games is frightening. It's not going to make him go overlooked by any means, but I think it will keep his ownership reasonable at the very least.

Few running backs provide wide-receiver-esque upside in daily fantasy football; Peterson is one of those who does. Putting him in a dream matchup when his team figures to be in positive game script should be enough to get you to pull the trigger despite the hefty price tag.