5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
New Orleans Saints Passing Offense
The last sentence of the intro mentioned "changing things up a bit." Now, you get to read about my top recommendation from last week again. Honesty has never been a strength of mine.
At the same time, this is a radically different situation than we discussed last week. With Drew Brees suffering a torn plantar fascia in his right foot, we really don't know what this situation will look like once Sunday rolls around. Brees hopes to play, according to ESPN's Ed Werder, and he's in a great spot if he does. We'll discuss what happens if he doesn't in a second.
Most of the focus in this game will -- justifiably so -- be on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Offenses against the Saints have been wealths of fantasy Gucciness this whole year, and the Jaguars have the pieces to exploit that. However, as bad as the Saints' pass defense has been, the Jaguars' has been equally wretched when they have played on the road.
In the Jaguars' six road games this year, opposing quarterbacks have racked up 72.51 Passing NEP, or 0.34 Passing NEP per drop back. Andy Dalton currently leads the league in this stat at 0.35. Quarterbacks playing at home against the Jaguars would collectively be the third most efficient passers in the league this year. That's exploitable, friends.
This sets up perfectly considering how well Brees and company have played in the Superdome this year. At home, Brees has 0.36 Passing NEP per drop back, which would be the best mark in the league. Put that up against one of the league's worst pass defenses, and you have a recipe for success.
Now to the injury. If Brees plays, I'm absolutely rolling him out in tournaments. A good chunk of his production Monday night came after he sustained the injury. If he deems himself good to go, he'll still carry huge upside, and it will likely come at greatly reduced ownership because of the injury.
Then there's the ugly side: Brees sits. Woof. You're not going to use the back-up (whether they go with Matt Flynn or decide to let Garrett Grayson spin it), but I don't think that the receivers are totally out of consideration.
When Luke McCown started earlier this year, Brandin Cooks hauled in 7-of-8 targets for 79 yards. McCown racked up 310 yards through the air on only 38 attempts against the stellar Carolina Panthers defense on the road. That's only one game with a likely superior McCown, but it does speak to the Saints' personnel around the quarterback being able to succeed when pieces are missing. Against a secondary like this, I think Cooks and Willie Snead could put up sneaky numbers in a tournament.
Flynn seems the more likely candidate to start in Brees' place, but Grayson was an efficiency monster in his time at Colorado State. It would be a tall ask to have him jump from being inactive 11 games to starting, but Katherine Terrell of The Times-Picayune hinted that it may not be out of the question.
Clearly, you're taking a risk here regardless of who starts. However, the upside in this matchup is tremendous. If you can get a piece of that when others look elsewhere, that could be a big boon for your squad.
