4 Fantasy Football Sleepers for the Divisional Round

Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

There are a lot of really good quarterbacks in play this week -- six of the nine top fantasy point per game players will be playing this weekend -- which makes it difficult to pivot off of them. But if we're looking at the only two quarterbacks not to finish near the top of the league leaders, Peyton Manning and Alex Smith, Smith is the better option.

The Patriots have been decent against both the rush and pass this season -- ranking ranking 12th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and 15th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play -- but opposing teams have had far more fantasy success passing the ball against them. While still not an amazing matchup, New England has allowed the 18th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and over their previous three games, they've allowed an average of 306 passing yards and 2.33 touchdowns.

With the Patriots favored by five points, there should be some expectation that Smith will be forced to throw due to projected game flow. The Chiefs have been a three-point underdog or greater on four occasions this season, and Smith has fared well, averaging 290 passing yards and 0.75 passing touchdowns and 25 rushing yards. A comparable line with a slight bump in touchdowns would make Smith a worthy pivot off of the more popular plays.