6 Undervalued Fantasy Football Assets Based on Vegas Win Totals
Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots
Team Win Total: 10.5 | ADP: 64th-ranked Wide Receiver
Sometimes, it pays to draft a situation rather than an individual player. With the barren and battered wide receiver depth chart the New England Patriots have, you should be taking as many stabs as you can in hopes of snagging the guy who steps up, and that guy could be Chris Hogan.
Mike Reiss of ESPN NFL Nation recently mentioned that Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Hogan, and fourth-round pick Malcolm Mitchell are likely topping the team's depth chart at wide receiver at the moment. Edelman underwent a second foot surgery this offseason, and Amendola had knee and ankle surgeries. Hogan could be a viable fantasy asset even if those two were fully healthy, but their question marks in that department give him unlimited upside.
Some of you (myself included) may be experiencing violent flashbacks to last year, when Brandon LaFell returned from injury to a similar situation to what Hogan has. LaFell promptly went full Davante Adams and worked his way into fantasy obscurity, leaving a trail of destruction and sadness in his wake.
Thankfully, Hogan's metrics aren't as soul-crushing as LaFell's.
The table below shows how the two performed based on NEP last year. Reception NEP is the expected points added on each reception, and Target NEP will deduct the points lost on events such as interceptions and incompletions that won't show up in a player's Reception NEP. Target NEP/T is simply the player's Target NEP divided by their total targets.
| Player | Targets | Reception NEP | Target NEP | Target NEP/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 59 | 39.13 | 11.01 | 0.19 |
| Brandon LaFell | 74 | 36.54 | 2.39 | 0.03 |
All of these are stats that will be heavily influenced by the receiver's quarterback, and as much as we all love Tyrod Taylor, it would be a stretch to say that he's Tom Brady. Even with that qualification, Hogan left LaFell in the dust.
There's always the possibility that Hogan will be a dud, given that he's joining the team with only 137 career targets through his age-27 season. That same risk, though, exists with every other wide receiver in his ADP range. Guys like he and Mitchell who have stupid upside if they carve out a role, and that's how they separate themselves from their lower-tier peers.
