The 10 Most Overrated NFL Head Coaches Since 2000

2. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Average nERD: -2.16 (47th)
Average Win Differential: 0.18 (35th)

Even when he was a rival coach of my beloved Packers, I thought Lovie Smith got the short end of the stick and no respect from Bears fans; Smith was primarily a defensive-minded coach, and their defense always seemed superb. The Bears never seemed to be an easy out during his tenure, and they won the NFC North three times in the nine seasons that he was in charge of them, from 2004 to 2012. Even when they didn’t make the playoffs, it seemed like Smith’s teams had great years but were just outplayed in the division -- like when he was fired after a 10-6 season that would have been an excellent record in almost any other division. Even with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Smith improved their record from 2-14 in his first year to 6-10 in his second.

Despite having a nearly-even win differential, Smith’s average nERD for his teams was well below-average. His best season was the 2006 team that went 13-3 in the regular season but was beaten by the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLI, which had a nERD of 4.76. He had only four positive nERD seasons out of 11 as a head coach but had three seasons with a nERD lower than -5.00.