12 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts This Year
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
By Jordan Hoover
Hurns turned in an eye-popping 2015 sophomore season, catching 10 touchdowns on just 64 receptions. His catch rate improved by nearly 9 percentage points compared to the 2014 season, and he was the third-most efficient wide receiver last season based on numberFire’s Net Expected Points (NEP) metric on a per-play basis.
All of this is well and good, but there are solid reasons to believe Hurns is set to regress in 2016 and, therefore, bust the hopes of fantasy owners banking on a repeat performance.
It’s been well documented on our site as to why Blake Bortles is likely to see some regression this season. numberFire's Matt Blair also wrote a really great piece showing why off-season additions and returners from injury could directly impact Hurns’s production. And, finally, circling back to efficiency, Hurns’s extreme jump from one season to the next given near identical target totals appears unsustainable, even with a small two-year sample size:
| Year | Rec | Reception NEP | Targets | Target NEP | Reception NEP/Target | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 64 | 97.06 | 105 | 54.16 | 0.92 | 60.95% |
| 2014 | 51 | 52.01 | 97 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 52.58% |
It’s unlikely that Hurns simply evaporates into irrelevance in the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense. There is a good chance, however, that fantasy owners currently drafting him in the fifth round are likely to be let down come season’s end.
