ADP Watch: Lamar Miller is on the Rise

Fantasy owners are fickle. Even without news, they’ll change their positions on players because they get a feeling. They feel a particular runner will perform. They feel a quarterback will have a career year. They feel a tight end is going to break through.

And then when there’s actual news, well, the indecisiveness gets all “Jessie Spano caffeine pill episode” on us. One report saying a guy looks bad in camp, and boom: ADP drop. Another says that same player is outperforming expectations, and bam: ADP rise.

Can we just chill for a second?

Each week through the end of the preseason, I’ll be providing some info on the ADP swings we see in fantasy football. Some of them are warranted; a player getting hurt certainly should result in ADP fluctuations. But others? Not so much.

All average draft position data is from fantasyfootballcalculator.com

On the Rise

Everyone’s loving Lamar Miller out of camp in Miami, and that’s already shooting his up his cost. His draft value has been compared to David Wilson’s throughout the offseason, but it looks like he’s running away with the second-year running back title.

We’ve got Lamar Miller as our 28th ranked running back, and he’s leaving the board as the 19th-best one. In other words, continue to stay away, especially with his rising price tag.

Dennis Pitta’s season-ending hip injury has fantasy owners – and Joe Flacco – sobbing. It’s a shame, but the show must go on. That show is Ed Dickson.

Dickson’s had some playing time with the Ravens in the past, hauling in 54 receptions for five scores in 2011. We currently project him for 77 grabs, which is more a result of there being no other Ravens pass catchers than Dickson's true talent. The receiving situation in Baltimore may change, but for now, Dickson is a solid value in the late rounds. Hopefully his ADP stays.

Another beneficiary of the Pitta injury could be Torrey Smith. Again, there aren’t many guys for Flacco to toss his lopsided ball to. Smith could end up snagging 130 to 140 targets in 2013, forcing any potential fantasy owner to at least give him a look.

Right now, he’s leaving the board in Round 5 of 12-team drafts. That’s going to go up, and I’m not sure – no, we’re not sure – that it’s warranted. Currently, Smith is our 24th-ranked receiver, which aligns nicely to his WR22 ADP. Any rise, however, will make him more of a detriment for your team than a value.

Streater has been called the “most consistent” and “reliable” wide receiver for the Raiders in camp, making him an alluring late-round fantasy sleeper. The Raiders don’t have studly play at the position, and Streater could provide a top target for whichever quarterback ends up starting for the scrambled team.

Currently going undrafted, Streater could rise to Denarius Moore status, who is listed as a 10th rounder in 12-team drafts. Given Moore’s 35th wide receiver rank, Streater may have some appeal as a WR3 this season. That is, if he can take the number one job. Keep your eyes peeled.

The rookie out of Michigan State is already getting first team reps with the Steelers, solidifying the fact that he’ll probably start the season as starter. The running back position is always a scare commodity in fantasy football, and seeing recent rookie success in Doug Martin and Trent Richardson, fantasy owners are going to be anxious to snag Bell. There’s no doubt his ADP will increase from his current early fourth-round spot. If you're willing to spend, Bell could provide a lot of upside.

Dropping Like They’re Hot

Though reports are saying that Darrius Heyward-Bey is already dropping passes in Colts camp, he is running with the starters. That’s not good news for second-year wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who’s hoping to continue his tear as Andrew Luck’s second favorite target.

We already weren’t incredibly high on Hilton this season, listing him as our 43rd-best receiver. If DHB does indeed split time with him as starter, it looks as though that ranking could turn into an optimistic one. Without Bruce Arians, the Colts may limit deep passes, hurting Hilton's value. It's time to stay away.

Unlike fellow rookie Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball has been playing second fiddle to Ronnie Hillman so far in camp. We haven’t been high on Ball all offseason, and this just solidifies our feelings.

Ball’s ADP has dropped five-ish spots over the last month, and he’s now officially listed below Bell in average draft position. The longer Hillman stays in front of him, the longer the trend will continue.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but Ryan Mathews is already getting heat from fantasy owners after splitting reps at Chargers camp. A big deal? Of course – it’s Ryan Mathews. With new running back and favorite sleeper Danny Woodhead in town, pretend pigskinners are even more unenthusiastic about Matthews' potential in 2013.

His draft position for a potential starter has always been attractive, but his outlook is looking less and less hopeful by the day. We currently have him ranked as our 20th running back, but that could dip if there's a change in usage. If you're drafting today, think of Mathews as a flex player with upside.