4 Outliers Who Won't Repeat Their 2012 Stats

The bain of my existence is the outlier. Any statistician will tell you this: that moment when Florida Gulf Coast comes up and destroys everything you had built, just off of a fluke three percent chance, will absolutely crush your soul. It's maddening.

Of course, the reverse is true as well. Sometimes, you'll pick a receiver with your 13^th round selection, only to see him blow up into one of the league's top options (well hello there, Randall Cobb!). It's the real-life version of landing on a Mario Party Hidden Block - I don't know what I did to deserve this gift, but I will accept it with open arms.

But here's the part that everybody forgets: outliers are called outliers for a reason. Statistically, they're extremely unlikely to ever happen again. And although a player's average draft position will be surely effected by the public perception, the numbers often tell a different story.

We're here to give you that story. For these four players, last year is likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime fluke that won't be repeated again this year.

Ryan Mathews

2012 Final Stats

Projected 2013 Stats

Remember last season, when Ryan Mathews was in the Lamar Miller role of players expected to take The Leap? One out of every ten fantasy owners just sadly nodded their heads and proceeded to curse the very ground Norv Turner walks on.

It's safe to say The Leap didn't exactly happen. Mathews rushed for just 707 yards and, the real kicker, one measly touchdown. His advanced efficiency numbers weren't much better - after measuring his net expected points (NEP), which determines how much a player rose or lowered his team's expected point output on each given play, we found that Mathews lost the Chargers 0.08 NEP per rush last season. That average was fifth-worst among all backs with at least 150 carries in 2012.

However, that type of poor efficiency isn't common for Mr. Mathews. On the contrary, in his three seasons prior to last year, Mathews had been right around the average RB line between 0.03 and -0.02 NEP/rush each year. In 2011, the year with his highest total carries with 222, Mathews averaged 0.02 NEP/rush, a not half bad total that placed him in the top half of all NFL RBs in terms of efficiency.

Sure, he might not receive too many redzone carries. But he also isn't as statistically likely to match last year's inefficiency, which drives him up our draft board. He's currently slotted with the No. 51 average draft position, but his likely jump in efficiency makes him No. 31 on our draft board, two rounds higher than his general consensus placement.

LeSean McCoy

2012 Final Stats

Projected 2013 Stats

In speaking of players that absolutely tanked your fantasy team, I'm going to guess you weren't feeling too hot about LeSean McCoy's year even before his Week 10 concussion, were you? It's not too often that a top three player on pretty much everybody's draft board isn't even in the top 20 at his position despite playing three-quarters of the games. (Well, unless it's fantasy baseball and you were one of the lucky Ryan Braun winners...)

McCoy built off a 0.09 NEP per rush 2010 with an even better 0.10 NEP per rush 2011... then saw it all go down the toilet as he averaged -0.07 NEP per rush on 200 carries last season. Only slightly better than the putrid Mr. Mathews up there, McCoy was the seventh-least efficient back who had at least 150 carries last year. The passing attack didn't exactly help his cause for once either; factoring in missed targets, he only gained the Eagles 12.84 expected points through the air, or 0.33 NEP per target.

Does anybody else really think 2012 is the real LeSean McCoy? We sure don't; statistically, he's much more likely to perform like the 2010 and 2011 version due to the much higher sample size to draw from. Especially with all the injury problems the Eagles had last year as well, it's easy to dismiss 2012 as an outlier. Barring all the ACL tears and racism that has happened on the Eagles offense already, McCoy seems primed for a bounceback year.

Most people like McCoy, as he currently holds an ADP of eighth overall. Most people just don't like him as much as we do. After the clear top two - AP and AF - he's our next top running back, with the 2011 McCoy as the model for his 1100+ yard, 11 total TD projection.

Brandon Marshall

2012 Final Stats

Projected 2013 Stats

Now let's turn the opposite way: Brandon Marshall just won't be that good again. This issue has nothing to do with Brandon Marshall's actual production. His 61 percent catch rate and 0.73 NEP per target actually seem pretty sustainable heading into this season, all told. But man, if he gets that many opportunities next season, I'll be shocked.

It's one thing to say that Brandon Marshall finished the year with the third-most targets in the NFL at 192, only behind Megatron's 204 and Reggie Wayne's 194. It's a completely separate scenario, though, to say that Marshall's 192 targets were the fourth-most in the NFL since 2000, with only Marvin Harrison's 2002 year taking the cake with 205 looks. The next closest behind Marshall is Randy Moss's 185 targets in 2002.

Exactly 40 percent of all throws to Bears receivers last year went Marshall's way, a ridiculously high number that tops the NFL leaderboards. Even though Johnson and Wayne had more targets, their QBs each had more total throws as well. The Bears only finished 27^th in the NFL in total pass attempts, their third straight year in the bottom six of NFL teams in that category.

With Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte both healthy and Martellus Bennett in the fold, it's tough to imagine Marshall receiving such a high proportion of Cutler looks once again. He'll be good, but perhaps just not "average 12 targets a game" good.

Owen Daniels

2012 Final Stats

Projected 2013 Stats

Seeing Owen Daniels with an average draft position of No. 127, the 12^th tight end off the board in total, makes me giggle. What, is he not a fan of his girlfriend's sister's boyfriend either? (Never too soon. Never too soon.)

His projected 2013 stats are close to his final 2012 stats because, well, he's been consistent for the past seven seasons. After averaging at least a 67 percent catch rate in each of his first four seasons, Daniels has slightly dipped to a 56, 64, and 60 percent rate in each of the past three seasons, respectively. As he has become the second focal point in the offense behind Andre Johnson, defenses haven't left him nearly as open.

However, he's made up for this through an increase in overall production. His 63.23 total NEP gained for the Texans is his second-most all-time behind his breakout 2008 campaign. His 104 targets last year, meanwhile, were his highest of all-time.

So what exactly isn't going to happen again? Statistically, we expect him to perform better than a 60 percent catch rate and a 0.61 NEP gained per target. And although he may not see 104 targets again, that increase in poor efficiency should keep him right around the same level. He's clearly in that second tier before the Big Four tight ends, and we have him as the sixth-best TE option on our board.