numberFire Mock Draft: Forte, Bush Enter the First Round

As our own Alex Hampl went to make the first pick in the numberFire mock draft last night, I hoped – prayed – his fingers would twitch. Perhaps, just for a second, he’d lose control of the way his hand was maneuvering his computer mouse. Even if it was just a mock, I wanted Adrian Peterson at number two. I spent time this week arguing for All Day as the top overall pick, noting that fantasy owners have been over analyzing his situation more than a group of sorority girls towards prospects during rush week.

But Alex is too smart for that. He doesn’t over think things. That’s why he writes for numberFire: We look at numbers, ignore narratives and make sound, rational fantasy football decisions.

Hampl took AP at number one overall without flinching, and the draft was underway. As for the rest of us? Well, our decisions weren’t as easy as his.

Round 1

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl, Writing Intern	1	Adrian Peterson, RB
JJ Zachariason, Editor-In-Chief	2	Doug Martin, RB
Adam Kaplan, VP Sales and Bus. Development	3	Marshawn Lynch, RB
Keith Goldner, Chief Analyst	4	Arian Foster, RB
Matt Grasso, Writer	5	Ray Rice, RB
Nik Bonaddio, CEO & Founder	6	Jamaal Charles, RB
Jeff Miller, Writer	7	C.J. Spiller, RB
C.D. Carter, Writer	8	Matt Forte, RB
Leo Howell, Writer	9	LeSean McCoy, RB
Mike D'Ecclessis, Writer	10	Trent Richardson, RB
Abe Schwadron, Editor, TDDaily.com	11	Calvin Johnson, WR
Rich Hribar, Writer	12	Reggie Bush, RB

We were under standard lineup rules: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST. Quarterback scoring was four points per touchdown pass, and receivers were to be rewarded half a point per reception.

The first round was pretty typical, as running backs dominated the draft selections. One of the bigger surprises came from C.D. Carter – a known Marc Trestman lover – with his eighth overall selection of Matt Forte. A slight reach, sure, but as I’ve noted, Trestman’s offense is reception heaven for starting running backs.

Rich Hribar ended up selecting Reggie Bush at the turn, which was one of the biggest risks taken all draft. The numbers do say, however, that he could be worth the gigantic gamble.

Round 2

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	13	Brandon Marshall, WR
Abe Schwadron	14	Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
Mike D'Ecclessis	15	A.J. Green, WR
Leo Howell	16	Alfred Morris, RB
C.D. Carter	17	Chris Johnson, RB
Jeff Miller	18	Dez Bryant, WR
Nik Bonaddio	19	Steven Jackson, RB
Matt Grasso	20	Stevan Ridley, RB
Keith Goldner	21	Demaryius Thomas, WR
Adam Kaplan	22	Aaron Rodgers, QB
JJ Zachariason	23	Darren Sproles, RB
Alex Hampl	24	Jimmy Graham, TE

The elite wideouts started jumping off the board in Round 2, with both Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green being selected as top-15 picks. A nice selection was made by Leo Howell at 16 with Alfred Morris who, despite it being a PPR league, should still be a top-12 or -13 draft choice. We have Morris projected to catch 25 balls this year, which is more than double his total last season.

Our fearless leader, Nik, snagged the aged Steven Jackson at 19, which seems like a steal given his potential use in the red zone this season. Michael Turner was relevant in fantasy football last year, guys, and he was dreadful toting the rock.

I felt really good about my Darren Sproles pick, too. In any kind of PPR league, Sproles instantly becomes solid RB2 material, and getting him towards the end of the second felt good.

Round 3

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	25	Drew Brees, QB
JJ Zachariason	26	Roddy White, WR
Adam Kaplan	27	Frank Gore, RB
Keith Goldner	28	DeMarco Murray, RB
Matt Grasso	29	Darren McFadden, RB
Nik Bonaddio	30	Andre Johnson, WR
Jeff Miller	31	Julio Jones, WR
C.D. Carter	32	David Wilson, RB
Leo Howell	33	Vincent Jackson, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	34	Victor Cruz, WR
Abe Schwadron	35	Peyton Manning, QB
Rich Hribar	36	Lamar Miller, RB

Hampl took Jimmy Graham and Drew Brees at the turn, and Nik made the fantastic comment that “Graham and Brees” sounded like a band. In fact, Nik stated, “…like, my Dad would be listening to ‘feelin fine’ by Graham and Brees while he drives me to CCD.”

Our CEO, ladies and gentlemen.

C.D. Carter continued his pseudo-surprising picks, selecting Giants running back David Wilson towards the tail-end of the third. We’re not completely sold on Wilson – he’s our 22nd-ranked back – but he has the ability to be a big play runner in the league.

A big surprise was the drop of Julio Jones. Though he's one of the most talented pass catchers in the league, Julio fell to the middle of the third round, a spot I've rarely seen him fall to. We like Roddy more overall, and given Julio's target restrictions, he seems to be overvalued at his usual second-round ADP. A good pick in the third, but don't reach for him in the second.

Round 4

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	37	Larry Fitzgerald, WR
Abe Schwadron	38	Randall Cobb, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	39	Marques Colston, WR
Leo Howell	40	Rob Gronkowski, TE
C.D. Carter	41	Dwayne Bowe, WR
Jeff Miller	42	Danny Amendola, WR
Nik Bonaddio	43	Reggie Wayne, WR
Matt Grasso	44	Wes Welker, WR
Keith Goldner	45	Tom Brady, QB
Adam Kaplan	46	Chris Ivory, RB
JJ Zachariason	47	Le'Veon Bell, RB
Alex Hampl	48	Eric Decker, WR

We were all watching the Thursday night games while drafting, and I was prepared for someone to take the now sleepwalker Jordan Cameron before Rob Gronkowski. Clearly that didn’t happen, as Gronk went to Leo with the 40th overall pick. That’s the type of high risk, high reward bet that could win a fantasy championship. For me though? I’m waiting on tight end.

Tom Brady went to our math genius, Keith Goldner, at 45 overall, the fourth signal-caller off the board. Unlike the rest of the football world, Keith didn’t overreact when Brady appeared to have died during practice earlier in the week. It was a sound choice given Brady’s history.

Round 5

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	49	Antonio Brown, WR
JJ Zachariason	50	Steve Smith, WR
Adam Kaplan	51	Mike Wallace, WR
Keith Goldner	52	Ryan Mathews, RB
Matt Grasso	53	Jordy Nelson, WR
Nik Bonaddio	54	Matt Ryan, QB
Jeff Miller	55	Eddie Lacy, RB
C.D. Carter	56	Pierre Garcon, WR
Leo Howell	57	Torrey Smith, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	58	Cam Newton, QB
Abe Schwadron	59	Jason Witten, TE
Rich Hribar	60	Shane Vereen, RB

Goldner continued with a Ryan Mathews selection in Round 5. While plenty are going to say, “Ryan Mathews is dead to me,” the reality of the situation is that there are few probable 200-plus carry backs that can be had that late. To me, Keith took Mathews at the right time.

Rich Hribar closed out the fifth with a controversial Shane Vereen pick, but I couldn’t be happier to see him leave closer to the sixth round than the third. Back when I wrote about Vereen’s absurd ADP in July, he was rising to the end of the fourth round in PPR mock drafts. Like, starting running back territory. Rich’s valuation seems fair, as Vereen is still a risk as the number two running back in the Patriots’ offense.

Round 6

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	61	Ahmad Bradshaw, RB
Abe Schwadron	62	Montee Ball, RB
Mike D'Ecclessis	63	Rashard Mendenhall, RB
Leo Howell	64	Mike Williams, WR
C.D. Carter	65	Hakeem Nicks, WR
Jeff Miller	66	Daryl Richardson, RB
Nik Bonaddio	67	DeAngelo Williams, RB
Matt Grasso	68	Matthew Stafford, QB
Keith Goldner	69	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB
Adam Kaplan	70	Tony Gonzalez, TE
JJ Zachariason	71	DeSean Jackson, WR
Alex Hampl	72	James Jones, WR

Though Montee Ball is on the decline in terms of ADP, a sixth-round selection is actually pretty good value for Abe’s team. Ball was the 29th back selected in this particular draft, which is lower than our 26th-ranked projection. Good on ya, Abe.

After risky calls in the early rounds, C.D. Carter ended up getting a great value in Hakeem Nicks during Round 6. Though injury is certainly a concern, a healthy Nicks is a happy fantasy squad. He’s one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league.

Round 7

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	73	Vick Ballard, RB
JJ Zachariason	74	Andre Brown, RB
Adam Kaplan	75	Greg Jennings, WR
Keith Goldner	76	Anquan Boldin, WR
Matt Grasso	77	Colin Kaepernick, QB
Nik Bonaddio	78	Tavon Austin, WR
Jeff Miller	79	Robert Griffin III, QB
C.D. Carter	80	Cecil Shorts, WR
Leo Howell	81	T.Y. Hilton, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	82	Vernon Davis, TE
Abe Schwadron	83	Russell Wilson, QB
Rich Hribar	84	Miles Austin, WR

There weren’t a whole lot of surprises in Round 7, although it’s important to note that Vernon Davis left the board towards the end of the round, a cost three rounds cheaper than his current average draft position. We have him as our seventh-best tight end entering the season, showing the correct pick was made.

Round 8

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	85	Tony Romo, QB
Abe Schwadron	86	Steve Johnson, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	87	Giovani Bernard, RB
Leo Howell	88	Mark Ingram, RB
C.D. Carter	89	Josh Gordon, WR
Jeff Miller	90	Ronnie Hillman, RB
Nik Bonaddio	91	Greg Olsen, TE
Matt Grasso	92	Lance Moore, WR
Keith Goldner	93	Sidney Rice, WR
Adam Kaplan	94	Andrew Luck, QB
JJ Zachariason	95	Emmanuel Sanders, WR
Alex Hampl	96	Isaiah Pead, RB

We’ve been doing a lot of work around here on Golden Tate and Sidney Rice, and Keith ended up choosing Rice over the more versatile wideout. Time will tell whether or not that was the correct decision. Rice seems to be a safer bet, but Tate may have more upside.

Rams running back Isaiah Pead also left the board in the eighth, two rounds after teammate Daryl Richardson. We’re much more optimistic about Richardson given camp reports, but Hampl was in desperate need of running back depth after snagging two non-runners in Rounds 2 and 3. Perhaps he should’ve listened to his own advice on this one.

Round 9

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	97	Johnathan Franklin, RB
JJ Zachariason	98	Alshon Jeffery, WR
Adam Kaplan	99	Kyle Rudolph, TE
Keith Goldner	100	Kenny Britt, WR
Matt Grasso	101	Ben Tate, RB
Nik Bonaddio	102	Michael Floyd, WR
Jeff Miller	103	Golden Tate, WR
C.D. Carter	104	Chris Givens, WR
Leo Howell	105	Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
Mike D'Ecclessis	106	Denarius Moore, WR
Abe Schwadron	107	Bernard Pierce, RB
Rich Hribar	108	Pierre Thomas, RB

This is typically when the upside players start dropping off, as the majority of non-defense and kicker lineup slots are filled. I went with one of my favorite sleepers this year, Alshon Jeffery, hoping Trestman’s offense allows for more than just one wideout to be relevant in Chicago this season.

Leo Howell ended up taking Jacquizz Rodgers, who according to ADP data, should have left the board a couple of rounds later. Perhaps he was influenced by the short touchdown run Rodgers had during our draft, but it’s important to always keep ADP data in mind while you select.

Round 10

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	109	Kendall Wright, WR
Abe Schwadron	110	Brian Hartline, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	111	Bryce Brown, RB
Leo Howell	112	Eli Manning, QB
C.D. Carter	113	Danny Woodhead, RB
Jeff Miller	114	Vincent Brown, WR
Nik Bonaddio	115	Fred Jackson, RB
Matt Grasso	116	Jonathan Stewart, RB
Keith Goldner	117	Brandon Myers, TE
Adam Kaplan	118	Seahawks D/ST
JJ Zachariason	119	Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Alex Hampl	120	Antonio Gates, TE

The first defense went off the board in Round 10, but let’s not give Adam a bad time for it: He had accidently left the mock. As I’ve said, you not only need to wait until the final two rounds to select your defense, but you should target D/STs with favorable Week 1 matchups. Here are five of them to target during your draft.

Round 11

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	121	DeAndre Hopkins, WR
JJ Zachariason	122	Ryan Broyles, WR
Adam Kaplan	123	Owen Daniels, TE
Keith Goldner	124	Mikel Leshoure, RB
Matt Grasso	125	49ers D/ST
Nik Bonaddio	126	Michael Vick, QB
Jeff Miller	127	Bilal Powell, RB
C.D. Carter	128	Jordan Cameron, TE
Leo Howell	129	Zac Stacy, RB
Mike D'Ecclessis	130	Shonn Greene, RB
Abe Schwadron	131	Texans D/ST
Rich Hribar	132	Joique Bell, RB

The surprise in Round 11 was Jeff Miller’s selection of Bilal Powell. He must have read Leo’s article on Powell’s situation in New York, as starter Chris Ivory is injury-prone and Mike Goodson is stupidity-prone. Either that, or he was shouting his picks to his wife while he was getting a beer, and swallowed his tongue. “BILAL!”

Round 12

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	133	Rueben Randle, WR
Abe Schwadron	134	Joe Flacco, QB
Mike D'Ecclessis	135	Andre Roberts, WR
Leo Howell	136	Marcel Reece, RB
C.D. Carter	137	Dustin Keller, TE
Jeff Miller	138	Kendall Hunter, RB
Nik Bonaddio	139	Michael Bush, RB
Matt Grasso	140	Justin Blackmon, WR
Keith Goldner	141	Malcom Floyd, WR
Adam Kaplan	142	Brandon Lloyd, WR
JJ Zachariason	143	Coby Fleener, TE
Alex Hampl	144	Bears D/ST

Carter took his own recommendation in Round 12, selecting Dustin Keller as his number two tight end behind Jordan Cameron. Carter is a proponent of tight end streaming, where he will play a different tight end each week based on matchup. It allows you to focus on higher-end running backs and receivers during your draft, hoping you can build a tight end Frankenstein that produces top tight end numbers throughout the season.

Matt Grasso took the suspended Justin Blackmon here, hoping to bench him for the four weeks he’s out. A bold move, but one that could pan out if Jacksonville can get their quarterback situation in place. However, I’m not sure I’d take Blackmon much higher than this round.

Oh, and disregard that pick by Adam. #autopicked

Round 13

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	145	Jared Cook, TE
JJ Zachariason	146	Austin Collie, WR
Adam Kaplan	147	Sam Bradford, QB
Keith Goldner	148	Daniel Thomas, RB
Matt Grasso	149	Jermichael Finley, TE
Nik Bonaddio	150	Rod Streater, WR
Jeff Miller	151	Martellus Bennett, TE
C.D. Carter	152	Alex Smith, QB
Leo Howell	153	Brian Quick, WR
Mike D'Ecclessis	154	Christine Michael, RB
Abe Schwadron	155	Stephen Gostkowski, K
Rich Hribar	156	Fred Davis, TE

I have no idea what I was thinking when I took Austin Collie here, but I did it. I then was peppered with concussion jokes for the rest of the night. Not cool, guys. Not cool.

I really did like Nik’s Rod Streater pick, as Streater is looking more and more like the number one target in the middling Raiders offense. He put up solid efficiency scores last year, and has a chance to grow with whichever quarterback the Raiders decide to throw under center.

Why did I pick Austin Collie again?

Round 14

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	157	Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
Abe Schwadron	158	Broncos D/ST
Mike D'Ecclessis	159	Jeremy Kerley, WR
Leo Howell	160	Zach Sudfeld, TE
C.D. Carter	161	Brandon Weeden, QB
Jeff Miller	162	Cardinals D/ST
Nik Bonaddio	163	Julian Edelman, WR
Matt Grasso	164	Donnie Avery, WR
Keith Goldner	165	Bengals D/ST
Adam Kaplan	166	Blair Walsh, K
JJ Zachariason	167	Andy Dalton, QB
Alex Hampl	168	Santana Moss, WR

A few sleepers left the board in Round 14, including Nik's pick of Julian Edelman. The Pats wideout has a big opportunity within their offense this season; the moving parts for Tom Brady are very inexperienced. Edelman is worth a shot at the end of your drafts.

Rich ended up selecting Cordarrelle Patterson, who will end up being Christian Ponder’s third-favorite target this season. He’s shown incredible athleticism this summer, and though rookie wide receivers rarely perform consistently throughout an entire NFL season (A.J. Green only comes every once and a while, folks), Patterson could be a serviceable bye week fill-in this year.

Round 15

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Alex Hampl	169	Greg Little, WR
JJ Zachariason	170	Rams D/ST
Adam Kaplan	171	Roy Helu, RB
Keith Goldner	172	Sebastian Janikowski, K
Matt Grasso	173	Aaron Dobson, WR
Nik Bonaddio	174	Patriots D/ST
Jeff Miller	175	Josh Freeman, QB
C.D. Carter	176	Colts D/ST
Leo Howell	177	Buccaneers D/ST
Mike D'Ecclessis	178	Steelers D/ST
Abe Schwadron	179	LeGarrette Blount, RB
Rich Hribar	180	Browns D/ST

And the defenses start dropping like flies. I went with the Rams – I really like their Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals. Nik made the decision to take the Pats, who like the Rams, have a juicy Week 1 game against the young Bills. The Bucs (vs. Jets), Steelers (vs. Titans) and Colts (vs. Raiders) each got selected as well, showing that we all mean business: We’re not necessarily looking to start these defenses each week of the season, but rather for the first week of the season.

Round 16

Owner	Pick Number	Selection
Rich Hribar	181	Phil Dawson, K
Abe Schwadron	182	Dwayne Allen, TE
Mike D'Ecclessis	183	Matt Bryant, K
Leo Howell	184	Greg Zuerlein, K
C.D. Carter	185	Kai Forbath, K
Jeff Miller	186	Robbie Gould, K
Nik Bonaddio	187	Matt Prater, K
Matt Grasso	188	Dan Bailey, K
Keith Goldner	189	Matt Schaub, QB
Adam Kaplan	190	Robert Turbin, RB
JJ Zachariason	191	David Akers, K
Alex Hampl	192	Steven Hauschka, K

Congratulations, Steve Hauschka: You’re Mr. Irrelevant.