The Cost of Jimmy Graham

Determining the cost of an individual can be a dangerous proposition. If you were to, say, go up to an attractive woman and make an inquiry of this nature, the outcome would most likely be a swift kick to a place where kicks are not appreciated. Obviously determining the cost of drafting a football player to your fantasy team is not quite as dangerous, but you should approach it with just as much caution.

It's easy to say that Jimmy Graham is going in the second round of drafts, and therefore his cost is a second round pick. Seems pretty straightforward, right? Well, if it were that straightforward, I wouldn't have bothered writing an article about it. The whole truth is that in addition to the cost of a second round pick, you're also victim to the opportunity cost of not getting a top-notch running back or wide receiver at that spot. So while it seems like a no brainer that Jimmy Graham is far and away the most valuable tight end around and will give you a huge advantage at the position each week, the decision of whether or not it is worth drafting Ol' Jimmy Jim Graham Crackers is really a bit more complicated than it seems.

How Do We Determine Jimmy Graham's Value?

There is only one objective way to determine whether or not taking a tight end early in your draft is a wise decision, and that's by running the numbers. Taking all possible draft order combinations into consideration would be sheer lunacy and well beyond my pay grade, so let’s make things as simple as possible without simplifying so much that the value of the calculations is lost.

If you take Jimmy in the second round, that means you didn't take a running back or wide receiver (let's leave quarterbacks out of this since you should be waiting anyway). To determine the true cost, the magical calculation is:

The difference between Graham's projected points total and the average second round projected total of running backs and wide receivers vs. the drop in projected total points in dropping your last starting running back or wide receiver one round later. In order to compare these values without completely filling up a spreadsheet with every possible draft order permutation, we will be treating running back and wide receiver as one position and taking their average projection at each round to make things smooth and digestible.

Get it? Good. If not, just stick with me here and we'll work through it together.

Things To Keep In Mind

If your league starts 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex RB/WR, and 1 TE, we’ll be interested in the projected totals of the first 5 RB/WR taken and the TE.

If your league starts 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex RB/WR, and 1 TE, then we’re interested in the projected totals of the first 6 RB/WR taken and the TE.

Going forward, we’ll call the former format "2 WR League" and the latter "3 WR League" for short. Essentially, the point totals shown in each table will be for your team’s starting lineup at the RB, WR, and TE positions.

The Numbers

Without further ado, the average projected total, according to our standard league projections, for RB/WR through the first seven rounds are:

Using Jimmy’s current projection of 161.27, when you take him in the second round, you can expect your point totals to be:

The Value Of Jimmy Over Other Top Options

OK, on their own, these numbers don’t tell you much, so let’s compare them to other options available to you. According to current ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Gronk and Vernon Davis are going in the fifth round and Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are going in the sixth round. Let’s look at the projected totals with these TEs at the appropriate round and compare…

2 WR League:

3 WR League:

So it seems even though Jimmy is definitely the best tight end available (insert juvenile butt joke here), an overall advantage of taking him in the second round doesn’t really present itself when you factor in the opportunity cost to the rest of your starting lineup. In fact, if Jason Witten or Tony Gonzalez slips to the sixth round, they actually present the opportunity to have a better starting lineup than drafting Jimmy in the second round.

The Value of Jimmy Over The Rest

Still, everyone knows that tight end is really deep this year and these are only the top level guys. You might be wondering what the numbers work out to be if you really like waiting on tight end. Let’s take look at the projected totals for lineups where tight ends are taken from the seventh through thirteenth rounds!

2 WR League:

3 WR League:

The Bottom Line

So for all those keeping track with all of these crazy numbers flying around, the point totals aren’t that wildly different, but there are clearly better options out there than sacrificing a second-round pick for your tight end. Go ahead and take an early-round tight end if you absolutely must, but be warned: you may not know Jimmy Graham personally, but he hates you and doesn’t want you to win your fantasy league this year.

The point drop offs from Jimmy Graham to the next best tight end may be significant, but not as significant as the points drop off from a second round RB/WR to a fifth- or sixth-round RB/WR. If we’re looking at the best places to get your tight end in order to optimize your team’s point total, the numbers say to grab Witten or Gonzo in the sixth. The next best option is surprisingly to wait all the way until the eleventh round where the options according to ADP are Brandon Myers and Owen Daniels.