Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tuesday 11/15/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
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Now, let's answer some questions.
Email submission from Brad B.:
With the recent news of A. Jeffrey suspended for PED usage, which WR would be a better add: C. Meredith or E. Royal? Thanks!
Man, what a rough situation for Alshon Jeffery owners. Jeffery was suspended for four games for performance enhancing drugs. I know there's a joke going around about "performance enhancement" for Jeffery during his down year, but among 55 receivers with at least 50 targets, he ranks 21st in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target at 0.74.
Eddie Royal has maintained a mark of 0.68 (about league average) over his 39 targets. Cameron Meredith? Just 0.46 on 41 targets. Woof.
Since Week 5, Meredith has played at least 83% of the Chicago Bears' snaps in each game, and Royal returned in Week 10 to play 73%. Despite his inefficiency, I'd have to lean toward Meredith for his upside if he takes over the Jeffery role alongside Jay Cutler. Of course, Royal and Cutler have a rapport from playing together for years, so both Meredith and Royal could have value.
@numberFire trade ARob n L Miller for Brees? PPR
Still have DJohnson, Ware, Hilton, Cooks, Moncrief, Forte
— Randall Stevens (@shawshank1222) November 15, 2016
Nope. There's really no way I can recommend trading that much for a quarterback -- even one of Drew Brees' pedigree. Sure, Allen Robinson has been struggling, but his 107-yard day against the A.J. Bouye-less Houston Texans last week was promising, and Lamar Miller -- despite playing fewer than 50% of snaps for three straight games -- has too much potential to package for a quarterback.
Brees does draw the Detroit Lions in Week 13 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Weeks 14 and 16, but he faces the Arizona Cardinals' eighth-ranked pass defense -- per Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP -- in Week 15. I know it's exciting and an upside play, but that's too much to pay for Brees.
See if you can offer just one of those guys for him, which is a much fairer proposal for both sides.
@numberFire @gdula13 have T.Y. and Jordy as my top two receivers, both face minn D in playoffs. is minn D still a force to be afraid of?
— just ty (@tysechler) November 15, 2016
Yeah, this is still a team to be afraid of in terms of the secondary, but they are certainly not the same as they were earlier in the season. Their Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play sat at -0.07 in Week 3 and improved to -0.09 for three straight weeks. It bopped up to -0.10 through Week 7 and plummeted to -0.01 since.
That means they're still one of just three teams to be on that side of zero (i.e. denying points to opponents), but the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles are at -0.14. So, really, the Vikes are third-best but are both trending down quickly and are facing health concerns.
Captain Munnerlyn missed Week 10 with an ankle injury, and Xavier Rhodes is currently in concussion protocol. If they miss time, you won't have to worry much at all about these playmaking receivers.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.
