Despite His Poor NFL Combine, Dalvin Cook Isn't Completely Doomed
Heading into the NFL combine, Dalvin Cook was sitting pretty. Based on analysis, scout rankings, mock drafts -- everything, really -- he was locked in, for the most part, as this year's second-best running back prospect.
Leaving the NFL combine, Cook's professional potential isn't looking as hot.
Cook's 4.49 40-yard dash at 210 pounds led to an above-average weight-adjusted time, but that's where the good news ends. His 3-cone, 20-yard shuttle, broad jump, and vertical leap were all very below average, leading to an overall athletic profile that doesn't exactly fit the bill of a first-round running back.
In fact, Cook's SPARQ score -- a measurement of overall athleticism based on combine numbers -- places him in the ninth percentile among NFL running backs. According to SPARQ guru Zach Whitman, no running back with that poor of a score has been drafted in the first round since 1999.
Nevertheless, there's a chance Cook still gets selected in the first round of this year's draft. And if that's the case, things don't look completely awful.
Using our NFL combine algorithm, here's a look at Cook's top measurable comparables among backs drafted in the first round over the last decade and a half:
| Year | Player | Selection | Percent Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Mark Ingram | Round 1, Pick 28 | 90.72% |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno | Round 1, Pick 12 | 87.01% |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch | Round 1, Pick 12 | 86.90% |
| 2008 | Rashard Mendenhall | Round 1, Pick 23 | 86.06% |
| 2008 | Felix Jones | Round 1, Pick 22 | 85.46% |
For a little more detail, here's their individual combine measurables:
| Player | Height | Weight | 40-Yard Dash | Vertical | Broad | 3-Cone | Shuttle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 70 | 210 | 4.49 | 30.5 | 116 | 7.27 | 4.53 |
| Mark Ingram | 69 | 215 | 4.62 | 31.5 | 113 | 7.13 | 4.62 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 71 | 217 | 4.50 | 35.5 | 115 | 6.84 | 4.27 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 71 | 215 | 4.46 | 35.5 | 125 | 7.09 | 4.58 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 70 | 225 | 4.41 | 33.5 | 117 | N/A | 4.18 |
| Felix Jones | 70 | 207 | 4.44 | 33.5 | 124 | 6.90 | 4.19 |
Now, the majority (all) of these players are much more athletic than Cook. That shouldn't be much of a surprise considering his SPARQ score would make him a first-round running back outlier.
But one player that really stands out is his top match, Mark Ingram, who had pretty similar numbers across the board. Cook, too, had comparable college production during his final season versus Ingram's big Sophomore campaign at Alabama.
| Statistic | Ingram | Cook |
|---|---|---|
| Att/Game | 19.36 | 22.15 |
| Att Market Share | 45.09% | 55.60% |
| Yds/Att | 6.12 | 6.13 |
| Yds Market Share | 55.06% | 67.11% |
| Rushing TD | 17 | 19 |
| TD Market Share | 54.84% | 57.58% |
| Receptions/Game | 2.29 | 2.54 |
| Receptions Market Share | 15.09% | 13.52% |
| Rec Yds Market Share | 12.69% | 14.21% |
This isn't to say Cook warrants a top selection in April's draft, because I'm sure if a team knew they were getting Mark Ingram, they'd pass. But he's not completely doomed, I suppose.
