NFL

NFL Week 8: Falcons First Drive & Botched Bears Field Goal

Keith Goldner  —  @keithgoldner Oct 31st, 2012
Andy Reid couldn't stop Matt Ryan even with the bye week and Lovie Smith makes a questionable decision.

numberFire.com Chief Analyst Keith Goldner occasionally takes a look at some of the big NFL decisions of the week and the advanced numbers behind them. Today, he takes a look at the Falcons and Bears in Week 8.

Andy Reid had never lost coming off a bye week in his head-coaching career. Matt Ryan did not care. Leading the Falcons on a 8 minute 44 second opening drive, Ryan and company marched 80 yards down the field over 18 plays before hitting Drew Davis on a 15-yard touchdown. Up 7-0, the Falcons were 72% favorites to win the game and that probability would never dip below that the rest of the day.

Here is a quick look at Matty Ice's first drive - on which he went 6 for 7 for 62 yards - using our Markov model:

Want to know about the Falcons drive and Lovie Smith's field goal decision? Check out Keith's full analysis at AdvancedNFLStats.com.