NFL

3 Prop Bets to Target in Week 5

Matthew Gajewski  —  @Matt_Gajewski Oct 6th, 2018
James Conner faces a crumbling Falcons defense, making his rushing prop total an attractive target. Which other prop bets should you be interested in?

After a crazy week of high-scoring games in Week 4, NFL player props look to have increased across the board for this weekend. Ahead of Week 5, FanDuel has provided an array of player props for the public to take advantage of.

With scoring up in the league as a whole, player prop bets provide another way for people to display their knowledge and skill in football. Here are some bets our projections love for this week.

Please note that our lines and projections may change after this article is published.

James Conner Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -102

With the usual odds on this player prop, a bet of $100 on James Conner going for more than 66.5 rushing yards nets $98. Disappointing of late, Conner has posted rushing totals of 16, 61, and 19 yards in his last three games. However, the second-year pro finds himself in a potential shootout in a soft matchup on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

Working in his favor, Conner has handled a league-leading 93.1 percent of the Pittsburgh Steelers' running-back touches. While his carry counts in individual games have ranged from 8 to 31, game script projects to be in Conner's favor as bookmakers currently peg the Steelers as 3-point home favorites, and Pittsburgh owns a week-best 30.5-point implied total.

The Falcons have yet to allow an individual rusher to eclipse 100 yards, but they will be without Grady Jarrett, Derrick Shelby, and Deion Jones in their front seven. This bodes well for the Steelers' rushing attack, particularly Conner.

With bookmakers yet to adjust to the climate of this Falcons-Steelers game, Conner's player prop bet is one to target.

Philip Rivers Over 279.5 Passing Yards -102

Philip Rivers has been the model of consistency this season, passing for at least 225 yards and 2 touchdowns in every game this campaign. He now takes his early season success back home to face a struggling Oakland Raiders team.

The Raiders have been a defense to exploit so far in 2018. This team has allowed an AFC-worst 123 points overall and at least 20 points to be scored against them in every game. Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Raiders have the 24th-ranked pass defense.

Rivers' matchup is further enhanced by the lack of pressure Oakland generates. Their front seven ranks dead-last in both sacks and quarterback pressures, indicating Rivers should have time to work from a clean pocket.

Our projections currently peg Rivers for 320.02 passing yards, a full 40 yards over his listed prop. With one of the bigger discrepancies on this week's card, this Rivers prop should be hammered until it rises.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 94.5 Receiving Yards -102

Another bet our projections love, a bet of $100 on DeAndre Hopkins passing 94.5 receiving yards nets $98.

This is a bet on talent more so than situation. The Dallas Cowboys have allowed the 10th-fewest yards to receivers this season. This may have to do with a weak schedule of opposing passing attacks, led by the New York Giants and the Doug Baldwin-less Seattle Seahawks. It also likely has to do with the Cowboys running the third-fewest plays in the NFL and playing at a slow pace. However, the Cowboys began to show cracks in Week 4, allowing Golden Tate to rack up 132 receiving yards.

Regardless of the Cowboys' recent success against the pass, Hopkins remains a solid bet due to volume and talent. Hopkins currently ranks tied for sixth in targets (45) and second in air yards (669). He is also one of four receivers to see at least 30 percent of his team's targets through four weeks.

Our projections have Hopkins putting up 103.29 receiving yards, almost a full 10 yards more than his prop. This Hopkins player prop is worth a strong look.