You Should Back the Favorites to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards
Every NFL season is unique -- and uniquely unpredictable.
Obviously, each year, teams have slightly different rosters, slightly different coaching staffs, and moderately different schedules, but projecting a season requires some guesswork. More appropriately, projecting a season should work with the underlying assumption that things can go wrong (or right) for teams and players. Variance is real, and range of outcomes matter. Especially when seeking value in props and over/unders.
Rather than rely solely on numberFire's projections -- the most likely outcome for every player this season -- I wanted to dig into the "what-ifs" for every player over a full season.
That helped me find betting value on passing yardage leaders on FanDuel Sportsbook as well as rushing yardage leaders. What's left? Receiving leaders, of course.
The Process
It's pretty simple. I simulated the NFL season 10,000 times, using numberFire's projections (and standard deviations) as the basis.
This showed me the probability that a given player would lead the league in receiving yards in 2019. Why? Because a median projection is great, but it doesn't necessarily account for variance and range of outcomes. Volatility helps players reach a higher range of outcomes, such as leading the entire league in yardage.
The Odds
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Julio Jones (+600) is favored to lead the league, followed by DeAndre Hopkins (+750). A seven-player second tier comes next in a competitive race to lead the league in yardage.
You can check out every player's odds to lead the league in receiving yardage below or over at FanDuel Sportsbook, but here are the top 37 (before things drop off to +10000).
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | +600 | Stefon Diggs | +5000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +750 | Tyler Boyd | +5000 |
| Mike Evans | +1200 | Tyler Lockett | +5000 |
| Odell Beckham | +1200 | Zach Ertz | +5000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +1300 | Allen Robinson | +6500 |
| Michael Thomas | +1300 | Emmanuel Sanders | +6500 |
| TY Hilton | +1300 | Marvin Jones Jr | +6500 |
| Antonio Brown | +1400 | Mike Williams | +6500 |
| Davante Adams | +1400 | Sammy Watkins | +6500 |
| Adam Thielen | +2000 | Will Fuller | +6500 |
| George Kittle | +2000 | Alshon Jeffery | +8000 |
| Keenan Allen | +2000 | Calvin Ridley | +8000 |
| Travis Kelce | +2200 | Christian Kirk | +8000 |
| AJ Green | +2600 | Cooper Kupp | +8000 |
| Amari Cooper | +3400 | Dante Pettis | +8000 |
| Brandin Cooks | +3400 | DeSean Jackson | +8000 |
| Kenny Golladay | +3400 | Jarvis Landry | +8000 |
| Julian Edelamn | +4400 | Robby Anderson | +8000 |
| Robert Woods | +5000 |
Target
Julio Jones (+600) - Jones is our projected leader in receiving yardage (1,559), giving him a 70-yard lead over DeAndre Hopkins (1,489), and only three other players are projected to crack 1,400 in our median projections. It stands to reason, then, that Jones led the league in the most simulated seasons. At +600, Jones' implied probability to lead the league is 14.3%. He actually led in 29.0% of the simulated seasons. That's high for sure, but Jones is the all-time leader in career yards per game (96.7), and we project him for 168 targets, tied for the league lead (with Davante Adams). He's the favorite for a reason, but he actually offers positive expected value.
DeAndre Hopkins (+750) - There really have only been two surprise receiving yardage leaders -- just based on name value -- over the past 15 years (Brandon Lloyd in 2010 and Muhsin Muhammad in 2004). The other winners were all big names. So while backing Julio and Hopkins won't get you a huge return, it's not the worst combo to seek. At +750, Hopkins' 11.8% implied probability is shy of the 17.3% of simulated seasons in which he led the league in receiving. We already know he's within 100 yards of Jones for the receiving title in our median projections, but he's a virtual lock for 150-plus targets, and his quarterback -- Deshaun Watson -- should have much better health this year than he did last year.
Odell Beckham (+1200) - Okay, okay. I get it. It's not fun to back the favorites, but let's be pragmatic. Receiving leaders need to be voluminous and productive, and these three fit the bill. Beckham led the simulated seasons in receiving 10.2% of the time, making him one of three players (along with Julio and Hopkins, of course) to do it in at least 10.0% of the sims. At +1200, he should have around a 7.7% chance for break-even value. Beckham actually grades out sixth in our median projections, but it's his volatility that gets him to the top of the leaderboard more frequently than his peers. Also in Beckham's favor is the elite efficiency that Baker Mayfield showed in the second half of the season after the Cleveland Browns' coaching change. Mayfield is a good bet to lead the league in passing, so it makes sense that his top target is worthy of consideration as well.
Keenan Allen (+2000) - Allen hits a break-even point at his odds (4.8%) when we ramp up the volatility in the projections. That doesn't mean that there's positive expected value here, and that makes it a tough sell. However, if you want more return on your investment than 14/1, Allen is maybe the place we can feel comfortable if using our heads rather than our hearts to project. Allen is slated for 151 targets, eighth-most in the league, and at 1,365, he is projected to finish seventh in receiving in our median projections. Allen's 74.4 yards per game rank him 15th all-time, and we're projecting the Los Angeles Chargers to be the sixth-best passing offense in 2019.
