NFL Weather Report: Week 1
While both of these games have a greater than 10% chance of raining, they represent different game-time conditions. The Titans-Browns clash in Cleveland indicates a 15% chance of rain but less than .001 inches of precipitation. Think of a mist or light drizzle.
On the other hand, Seattle has a nearly 45% chance of raining and forecasts .02 inches of rain per hour. That’s considered to be light rain by the National Weather Service. Neither are enough to change my assessment of either game, but they are worth noting for clarification. That's borne out in the data.While both of these games have a greater than 10% chance of raining, they represent different game-time conditions. The Titans-Browns clash in Cleveland indicates a 15% chance of rain but less than .001 inches of precipitation. Think of a mist or light drizzle.
On the other hand, Seattle has a nearly 45% chance of raining and forecasts .02 inches of rain per hour. That’s considered to be light rain by the National Weather Service. Neither are enough to change my assessment of either game, but they are worth noting for clarification. That's borne out in the data.The time has come, and football is back. We can finally dive into the storylines, and with all of them come the plot twists that fill our timelines. Wide receiver/cornerback matchups. Snap counts. Pace of play. And, of course, the weather.
Poor game conditions stick in our minds like dropped passes and interceptions. However, they aren’t always correlated with the outcome of a game.
My past work has focused on the weather and its impact on the game:
-- Weather and Game-Level Effects
-- Weather Effects and Target Distribution
-- Wind Speed and Quarterback Throwing Velocity
In general, we’re looking for the extremes. Things like wind speeds over 17 MPH, continuous snowfall and torrential downpour. Hopefully we won’t see those conditions. But if so, you’ll have an idea of how to adjust your expectations. I’ll be pulling weather forecast data each week, highlighting games with poor conditions, and discussing the impact.
Week 1 typically spares us, but there are a handful of games that caught my eye to start the 2019 season.
Overview
Here are the games with varying levels of weather concerns headed into Week 1.
| Game | Temperature | Feels Like | Chance of Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams at Panthers | 82.3 | 87.3 | 0% | 6 MPH NE |
| Titans at Browns | 68.3 | 68.3 | 15% | 8 MPH N |
| Chiefs at Jaguars | 95.5 | 102.75 | 7% | 8 MPH ESE |
| Ravens at Dolphins | 90 | 98.75 | 23% | 9 MPH SE |
| Bengals at Seahawks | 67.25 | 67.25 | 44% | 8 MPH SSW |
| 49ers at Buccaneers | 89.75 | 99 | 1% | 5 MPH WSW |
Games Impacted By Heat
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The concern here gets into sports science and playing at high temperatures. Research highlights the risk of heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke due to the body's inability to maintain its core temperature. Muscle cramps from loss of sodium via sweating are possible requiring frequent hydration.
If these temperatures hold throughout the game, don’t be surprised to see players frequently pulled to rest, stretch, and maintain proper fluid levels throughout the game. Using game totals since 2003, we can see how this has impacted games.
| Temperature | Games That Hit the Over | Pass Attempts Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| 80-85 | 51% | 68.8 |
| 85-90 | 46% | 68.8 |
| 90-95 | 47% | 65.4 |
| 95-100 | 33% | 59.3 |
| 100+ | 0% | 57.5 |
Again, we’re looking for extremes. The Rams-Panthers game doesn’t necessarily fall into this category, but the three games in Florida are forecasted to be above 95 degrees. It’s at these temperatures where a clear decline in game totals and passing volume become visible. The temperature (and the potential hurricane) should be monitored headed into Sunday’s games.
Games Impacted By Rain
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
While both of these games have a greater than 10% chance of raining, they represent different game-time conditions. The Titans-Browns clash in Cleveland indicates a 15% chance of rain but less than .001 inches of precipitation. Think of a mist or light drizzle.
On the other hand, Seattle has a nearly 45% chance of raining and forecasts .02 inches of rain per hour. That’s considered to be light rain by the National Weather Service. Neither are enough to change my assessment of either game, but they are worth noting for clarification. That's borne out in the data.
| Condition | Games That Hit the Over | Pass Attempts Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Mist | 34.8% | 86.5 |
| Light drizzle | 33.3% | 68.0 |
| Light rain | 37.0% | 69.9 |
| Rain | 25.0% | 60.1 |
| Heavy rain* | 75.0% | 79.5 |
Heavy rainfall has a lack of samples skewing the results, but a game’s total shouldn’t be impacted by possible rainfall.
We actually saw this in Week 1 of the 2018 season. In that game, a matchup between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, we had moderate rainfall (0.1 inches per hour) that could be seen on the field at times throughout the game. While the game featured eight possible turnovers, nearly half could be attributed to normal football play -- or, essentially, not caused by the weather.
Without heavy rainfall predicted for either of the above games, we can proceed as normal with our fantasy plays this week.
