Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 4
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was our best week so far. We nailed Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones in tournaments and continued to print money with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in cash. Not to mention, we finally had our "play of the week" make it through four quarters without an injury. Let's keep it going in Week 4.
Without further ado, let's dig in.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Kyler Murray ($7,600) -- Murray was our top play of the week in Week 3, but he let us down, throwing for less than 200 yards along with 2 interceptions. However, he still managed to return some value with 2 touchdowns and 69 yards on the ground.
We are going back to the rookie quarterback in Week 4 based on volume and upside. The Arizona Cardinals have thrown at least 13 more passes this season than every other team in the NFL. Our projections have Murray with the most passing attempts in Week 4. That type of volume should translate into huge passing days for Kyler sooner rather than later.
Murray turned his league-high passing attempts into days of 300-plus passing yards in each of his first two games and is up against a mediocre Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 4. According to our models, the Seahawks will be the worst passing defense Murray has played so far this season. Last week, Teddy Bridgewater completed 70% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns against the Seahawks struggling secondary, and that game was in Seattle.
Our projections expect Murray to have three carries in Week 4, but what we have seen through the first three weeks suggest this is Murray's rushing floor, not his ceiling as Murray has had at least three carries in every game so far this season. In a game with the fourth highest over/under this week, Murray is a great play in both tournaments and cash games in Week 4.
Tournament Plays
Matthew Stafford ($6,900) -- Matthew Stafford gets a home matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. In a game with the highest over/under of the week, Stafford should be forced to throw the ball a lot. Only three quarterbacks have had two games with at least 10 deep passes (passes that travel more than 16 yards). Those three quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Matthew Stafford. In what could easily turn into a shoutout, Stafford has an extremely high ceiling as a passer if he continues to throw the ball deep. Stafford is the seventh best value play this week, according to our projections.
Patrick Mahomes ($9,200) -- On the other side of that game will be Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes leads all quarterbacks in passing yards, touchdowns, and deep-ball attempts through three weeks. Even though Mahomes is significantly more expensive than any other quarterback on the slate, he remains a strong tournament play with QB1 potential every week. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week and are up against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass, according to our models. Our projections expect Mahomes to finish with the most passing yards and passing touchdowns once again in Week 4.
Cash-Game Plays
Lamar Jackson ($8,300) -- Lamar Jackson has printed money for us through three weeks, and we are not going to shy away from him in Week 4. Week 3 was his worst week as a passer to date, but his 46 yards rushing and one touchdown still allowed him to return value. Jackson's rushing floor is exactly why we play him in cash. He leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 172. Jackson finds himself in another great matchup, going up against a Cleveland Browns defense that is a bottom-five pass defense, according to our power rankings, which adjust for strength of opponent.
Daniel Jones (FanDuel Price: $7,300) -- Only a few months ago, we were all laughing at the New York Giants' decision to draft Daniel Jones with the sixth overall pick. Jones proved the haters wrong in his first ever NFL start last week, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring twice through the air and twice on the ground. Jones gets another solid matchup in Week 4 against a Washington defense that just allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for three touchdowns last week. Our projections have Jones as the top point-per-dollar value play across all positions this week.
Quarterback to Avoid
Josh Allen ($7,400) -- Josh Allen has been a go-to guy for us in cash so far this season, but we would be wise to stay away from the second-year quarterback in Week 4. Allen is up against a New England Patriots defense that has yet to allow a touchdown. While the Pats have not had to play any great offenses, our schedule-adjusted numbers rank them as a top-five pass defense in the league. Our projections expect Allen to have the third-most rushing attempts this week, but his floor is simply too low to trust him in any format.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
