FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Monday Night
There's an NFC North matchup looming before Week 6 comes to an end, and that means we have a single-game slate to break down on FanDuel.
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions have an over/under of 45.5 points, and the Packers are 3.5-point home favorites. Who is in play on the single-game slate?
MVP Considerations
Aaron Rodgers ($15,500) - The priciest play in the game, Rodgers popped as the MVP candidate in a slate-high 18% of 150 Sharpstack simulations, which use historical correlations to identify the best lineups based on how the game unfolds in each simulation. Rodgers generated at least 20 FanDuel points in 44.4% of my personal game simulations. Nobody else surpassed 29.2%. Rodgers naturally stacks with the Packers' offense overall, particularly pass-catchers. Even at his salary, he's an easy MVP candidate to build around.
Matthew Stafford ($15,000) - With his price so close to Rodgers', Stafford should go underowned. He faces a top-tier pass defense tonight and didn't hit a ceiling game as often as Rodgers (20-plus points in 26.8% of my simulations), but he was the second-most popular MVP play in Sharpstack sims at 16%. Stafford offers a clear leverage spot, as we'd be focusing more on the Lions than the favored Packers if building around him. He obviously pairs best with Kenny Golladay ($12,500) and Marvin Jones ($10,000), who I'm treating as tournament differentiation pieces rather than building blocks against the NFL's third-best adjusted pass defense.
Aaron Jones ($14,000) - Jones' touchdown equity is very, very intriguing, as he has slate-changing upside in various ways. If Green Bay hands off for scores again this week, the passing game will disappoint, so focusing on Jones as the go-to MVP candidate is a fine game theory perspective to take. As always with a single-game slate, players are always fade-worthy, and with Jamaal Williams ($7,000) back, Jones could fall flat if his snap rate trends back toward 50% this week.
Kerryon Johnson ($12,000) - Johnson should be underowned because the Packers' assets will be the priority. Johnson, though, faces the NFL's worst adjusted rushing defense and has averaged 20.8 opportunities per game. When factoring in price, floor, and upside, Johnson may be my favorite play for multi-entry tournaments against the Packers' funnel defense.
Value Considerations
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,500) and Geronimo Allison ($8,000) - With Davante Adams out, MVS and Allison grade out as value plays who can double as MVP options in huge tournaments. Valdes-Scantling played 95% of snaps without Adams last week; he had 4 targets. Allison played 86% of snaps and had 6 targets. Allison's cheaper tag and their virtually identical projections in my simulations make him the preference. The Sharpstack simulations agree.
Jamaal Williams ($7,000) - Williams had something of a 50/50 snap split with Aaron Jones while healthy this season. He's returning from a concussion, and Jones just scored four times last week, but he still was capped at 68% of snaps. Williams could be in the mix for a 40% snap rate at a cheap tag, and if he's the one who pilfers Green Bay's touchdowns, then you'll have yourself a nice tournament pivot.
T.J. Hockenson ($8,000) - Hockenson's practice schedule this past week implies he'll play tonight, and he's a sneaky way to attack this game. Danny Amendola's ($7,500) status is up in the air, and even if he plays, he'll have a tough slot matchup. Amendola has averaged a 62.5% route rate and a 48.9% snap rate when he played, while seeing two deep targets in two of three games. Hockenson, though, faces the Packers' 25th-ranked tight end defense by Target Success Rate, and he has four red zone targets over his past two games. His target floor could be elevated, given the difficult matchups on the outside.
