Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 9
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | $8,600 | 22.7 | 34.5% | 1.58 | 37.5% | 27.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $8,100 | 19.8 | 29.3% | 0.94 | 25.5% | 25.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,900 | 19.1 | 26.9% | 0.76 | 21.1% | 24.2 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,500 | 19.1 | 32.7% | 1.11 | 21.0% | 24.1 |
| Josh Allen | $7,700 | 18.6 | 29.1% | 0.90 | 20.1% | 23.9 |
| Derek Carr | $7,300 | 17.8 | 29.4% | 0.91 | 18.2% | 22.9 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,200 | 17.7 | 31.7% | 0.92 | 17.4% | 22.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,800 | 17.5 | 20.9% | 0.52 | 16.3% | 22.3 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,400 | 17.4 | 26.5% | 0.73 | 14.9% | 22.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,300 | 16.4 | 25.9% | 0.65 | 14.8% | 22.1 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,300 | 16.3 | 23.3% | 0.57 | 12.9% | 21.7 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,000 | 15.6 | 24.3% | 0.59 | 10.9% | 20.8 |
| Mason Rudolph | $6,800 | 15.0 | 22.8% | 0.53 | 9.3% | 19.9 |
| Kyle Allen | $6,800 | 14.9 | 22.2% | 0.51 | 8.3% | 19.6 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,500 | 14.9 | 26.8% | 0.67 | 9.7% | 19.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,200 | 14.8 | 17.8% | 0.36 | 8.1% | 19.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,100 | 14.5 | 18.8% | 0.39 | 9.7% | 19.8 |
| Matt Moore | $6,500 | 14.3 | 22.3% | 0.54 | 5.3% | 18.9 |
| Brandon Allen | $6,000 | 12.7 | 22.3% | 0.47 | 5.0% | 17.3 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Russell Wilson ($8,600) stands out as just that in the simulations, though there are always reasons to be concerned about game script with the Seattle Seahawks, especially against the NFL's best adjusted rush defense. On the other side of that game, Jameis Winston ($7,500) grades out with the second-best boom-to-bust ratio (good games versus bad games). Looking to one of them is a fine approach.
Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) and Philip Rivers ($7,200) sit third and fourth, respectively, by this measure and also happen to play against one another this week. All things considered, Rivers may be where I land, personally, given the price and the expensive running backs on the slate.
Derek Carr ($7,300) is fifth in a home spot against the Detroit Lions.
Tournament Standouts
If seeking raw upside, Wilson, Rodgers, Matthew Stafford ($7,900), Winston, and Josh Allen ($7,700) grade out with the best 75th-percentile outcomes, so realistic ceiling games without being a statistical outlier. The best value plays when using 75th percentile outcomes are Wilson, Winston, Rivers, Carr, Rodgers, Allen, and Stafford.
Wilson is way more likely to eclipse 25 FanDuel points than all other passers, which makes sense, given his median projection of 22.7.
Kirk Cousins ($7,800), Carson Wentz ($7,400), and Jacoby Brissett ($7,300) project for solid ceilings at lower ownership than the safer quarterbacks.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,700 | 22.4 | 30.3% | 0.81 | 60.6% | 31.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | $9,000 | 19.1 | 21.8% | 0.45 | 44.9% | 25.7 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,000 | 17.4 | 34.9% | 0.92 | 39.1% | 24.1 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,100 | 17.2 | 24.8% | 0.54 | 39.8% | 24.3 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,700 | 16.4 | 22.1% | 0.48 | 35.2% | 22.2 |
| Chris Carson | $8,200 | 16.2 | 18.3% | 0.37 | 33.9% | 22.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,200 | 14.9 | 22.0% | 0.45 | 27.6% | 20.6 |
| James Conner | $7,300 | 14.5 | 14.3% | 0.28 | 20.9% | 19.2 |
| Derrick Henry | $6,800 | 13.6 | 22.7% | 0.48 | 24.3% | 19.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,200 | 12.8 | 24.5% | 0.52 | 17.9% | 18.4 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $6,300 | 12.5 | 22.9% | 0.45 | 19.1% | 18.4 |
| Marlon Mack | $6,900 | 12.5 | 15.3% | 0.28 | 17.1% | 18.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,500 | 12.0 | 14.4% | 0.26 | 13.2% | 16.9 |
| Mark Walton | $5,700 | 11.4 | 24.2% | 0.49 | 13.9% | 16.9 |
| Royce Freeman | $6,100 | 10.7 | 16.0% | 0.28 | 10.5% | 16.0 |
| David Montgomery | $6,600 | 10.7 | 11.7% | 0.18 | 11.2% | 15.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,700 | 10.5 | 15.9% | 0.29 | 8.7% | 15.3 |
| Jordan Howard | $6,300 | 10.2 | 13.4% | 0.22 | 10.0% | 15.9 |
| LeSean McCoy | $6,000 | 9.6 | 9.3% | 0.14 | 5.8% | 14.0 |
| Frank Gore | $6,200 | 9.5 | 10.9% | 0.17 | 7.4% | 14.5 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,100 | 8.8 | 7.0% | 0.10 | 4.1% | 13.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,400 | 8.8 | 16.4% | 0.28 | 6.7% | 14.2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $5,000 | 8.7 | 16.6% | 0.28 | 3.3% | 13.0 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,800 | 8.2 | 4.4% | 0.06 | 1.1% | 12.0 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,500 | 8.0 | 7.7% | 0.11 | 2.3% | 11.8 |
| Tarik Cohen | $5,300 | 7.9 | 10.2% | 0.15 | 3.4% | 12.2 |
| Damien Williams | $5,400 | 7.4 | 7.5% | 0.11 | 1.8% | 11.8 |
| Ronald Jones II | $5,600 | 7.2 | 8.0% | 0.11 | 3.2% | 11.8 |
| Peyton Barber | $5,100 | 7.0 | 10.5% | 0.15 | 2.3% | 11.5 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,200 | 6.4 | 3.7% | 0.05 | 0.4% | 9.8 |
| Tra Carson | $5,700 | 6.0 | 5.2% | 0.06 | 2.0% | 10.1 |
| Alexander Mattison | $5,400 | 5.7 | 2.7% | 0.03 | 0.4% | 9.1 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,600 | 5.2 | 7.0% | 0.09 | 0.4% | 9.3 |
| Kalen Ballage | $4,900 | 5.0 | 4.0% | 0.05 | 0.3% | 8.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Based on price and expectation, it's Le'Veon Bell ($7,000) at the top against the Miami Dolphins, followed by Christian McCaffrey ($9,700), who is quite expensive, but a Bell/McCaffrey combo means you're getting each for $8,350, which certainly isn't a bad deal.
Running back is pretty wide open after that, and the best boom/bust ratios belong to Nick Chubb ($8,100), Phillip Lindsay ($6,200), Mark Walton ($5,700), and Aaron Jones ($7,700). Even though Dalvin Cook ($9,000) is 10th at his price, I still like jamming him into cash-game builds.
Tournament Standouts
The best 75th-percentile value plays are the same as the boom/bust top five: Bell, McCaffrey, Chubb, Lindsay, and Walton. After them, it's Melvin Gordon ($6,300), Derrick Henry ($6,800), Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs ($7,200), and Cook.
The seven backs with 75th-percentile outcomes of at least 20 points are McCaffrey, Cook, Chubb, Bell, Chris Carson ($8,200), Aaron Jones, and Josh Jacobs.
If seeking a high, raw points outcome at running back, you'll likely need to spend up, unless James Conner ($7,300) misses and allows Jaylen Samuels ($5,000) to play a workhorse role.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | $8,200 | 15.2 | 43.2% | 1.15 | 50.3% | 20.7 |
| Mike Evans | $8,100 | 14.7 | 43.2% | 1.18 | 49.8% | 19.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,500 | 14.5 | 46.0% | 1.27 | 46.0% | 19.6 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,600 | 13.4 | 40.5% | 1.00 | 41.4% | 18.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,900 | 13.1 | 37.1% | 0.88 | 40.6% | 18.7 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,300 | 13.1 | 42.2% | 1.07 | 40.5% | 18.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,700 | 13.1 | 36.4% | 0.82 | 37.5% | 18.4 |
| Davante Adams | $8,000 | 12.7 | 28.8% | 0.62 | 34.0% | 16.6 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,200 | 12.4 | 38.8% | 0.93 | 36.2% | 17.0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,400 | 12.1 | 34.9% | 0.76 | 34.0% | 16.7 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,000 | 12.0 | 42.2% | 1.01 | 36.9% | 17.5 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,100 | 11.7 | 36.3% | 0.91 | 29.9% | 16.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,300 | 11.5 | 32.8% | 0.69 | 30.7% | 16.3 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $5,700 | 11.4 | 50.3% | 1.41 | 31.1% | 16.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,400 | 11.3 | 42.8% | 1.08 | 32.8% | 17.0 |
| Tyrell Williams | $6,300 | 11.0 | 39.0% | 0.96 | 26.7% | 15.2 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,700 | 10.9 | 36.0% | 0.78 | 27.1% | 15.4 |
| DJ Moore | $5,400 | 10.8 | 51.1% | 1.49 | 27.3% | 15.4 |
| John Brown | $6,200 | 10.7 | 41.6% | 1.01 | 27.6% | 15.5 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,600 | 10.3 | 32.9% | 0.69 | 24.0% | 14.8 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,700 | 10.1 | 40.2% | 0.96 | 21.3% | 14.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,600 | 9.9 | 42.1% | 0.96 | 25.0% | 15.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,200 | 9.8 | 35.0% | 0.77 | 23.3% | 14.6 |
| Mike Williams | $5,700 | 9.8 | 39.1% | 0.88 | 20.5% | 14.2 |
| Preston Williams | $5,500 | 9.4 | 43.2% | 1.03 | 23.2% | 14.4 |
| Sammy Watkins | $6,000 | 9.4 | 36.6% | 0.80 | 21.7% | 14.3 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,800 | 9.4 | 38.9% | 0.88 | 20.0% | 13.9 |
| Danny Amendola | $6,000 | 9.1 | 35.8% | 0.77 | 19.0% | 13.7 |
| Robby Anderson | $6,200 | 9.1 | 30.7% | 0.59 | 17.8% | 13.3 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,800 | 8.9 | 35.9% | 0.78 | 19.2% | 13.7 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,000 | 8.7 | 41.5% | 0.94 | 16.3% | 13.1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $4,800 | 8.6 | 44.8% | 1.08 | 17.1% | 13.2 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,600 | 8.5 | 35.2% | 0.70 | 17.0% | 13.2 |
| Corey Davis | $5,300 | 7.6 | 32.1% | 0.61 | 11.8% | 11.7 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,500 | 6.9 | 23.5% | 0.40 | 7.9% | 10.8 |
| Adam Humphries | $5,100 | 6.7 | 24.3% | 0.41 | 6.4% | 10.1 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,000 | 6.6 | 28.7% | 0.53 | 7.4% | 10.7 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $6,300 | 6.5 | 13.7% | 0.20 | 6.1% | 10.4 |
| Taylor Gabriel | $4,900 | 6.1 | 22.5% | 0.36 | 6.0% | 9.3 |
| Anthony Miller | $5,100 | 6.1 | 21.9% | 0.35 | 5.0% | 9.7 |
| DeSean Jackson | $6,100 | 6.1 | 13.6% | 0.19 | 4.7% | 9.9 |
| Geronimo Allison | $5,400 | 5.9 | 20.9% | 0.33 | 6.8% | 10.1 |
| Paul Richardson Jr. | $4,800 | 5.9 | 26.6% | 0.45 | 5.5% | 9.9 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,400 | 5.9 | 19.1% | 0.29 | 5.2% | 9.6 |
| David Moore | $4,800 | 5.8 | 26.1% | 0.44 | 5.9% | 9.7 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,300 | 5.5 | 16.4% | 0.25 | 4.2% | 9.2 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,900 | 5.2 | 19.5% | 0.29 | 2.9% | 8.8 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $5,200 | 5.1 | 13.9% | 0.19 | 2.9% | 8.3 |
| Albert Wilson | $4,500 | 5.1 | 23.8% | 0.38 | 5.7% | 8.8 |
| James Washington | $5,000 | 5.1 | 18.8% | 0.28 | 3.4% | 8.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Mike Evans ($8,100) and Chris Godwin ($8,200) don't fit the typical price range of where I spend salary for a cash-game receiver, but they both rank top-five in boom-to-bust ratio and actually make sense this week to consider.
D.J. Moore ($5,400), Marvin Jones ($5,700), and Tyler Lockett ($7,500) are actually top three in boom-to-bust ratio, which really surprises me. I'd prefer Curtis Samuel ($5,600) to Moore but do have interest in the Carolina Panthers' receivers this week.
Demaryius Thomas ($4,800) is dealing with a dipping snap rate but is near minimum salary and is getting work down the field for the New York Jets. Keenan Allen ($7,300) should be in the consideration set if you can get there.
Really, this is a tough slate for cash-game receivers on FanDuel.
Tournament Standouts
Godwin, Evans, and Lockett have the best 75th-percentile outcomes in a game with the highest total of the main slate. Of note, Stefon Diggs ($7,900) is fourth, followed by Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill ($7,700), and Kenny Golladay ($7,600).
Marvin Jones, D.J. Moore, Demaryius Thomas, and Curtis Samuel lead the way in 75th-percentile value. Courtland Sutton ($6,400), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), and Preston Williams ($5,500) grade out with strong 75th-percentile outcomes among some of the cheaper options not already detailed.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,800 | 12.3 | 42.9% | 1.09 | 33.4% | 16.9 |
| Travis Kelce | $6,700 | 12.2 | 42.1% | 1.05 | 32.5% | 16.3 |
| Hunter Henry | $6,400 | 11.6 | 42.4% | 1.01 | 31.3% | 16.7 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,000 | 10.4 | 41.6% | 1.01 | 25.3% | 15.0 |
| Greg Olsen | $5,300 | 7.5 | 29.2% | 0.56 | 9.4% | 11.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,000 | 6.8 | 31.3% | 0.60 | 7.8% | 10.7 |
| Jimmy Graham | $6,000 | 6.7 | 17.7% | 0.27 | 7.0% | 10.5 |
| Eric Ebron | $5,200 | 5.9 | 23.0% | 0.38 | 6.1% | 10.0 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,000 | 5.9 | 24.0% | 0.40 | 6.8% | 9.7 |
| Noah Fant | $4,600 | 5.9 | 29.8% | 0.54 | 6.3% | 10.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,000 | 5.9 | 23.1% | 0.38 | 4.1% | 9.7 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,300 | 5.8 | 18.7% | 0.28 | 4.5% | 9.4 |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,500 | 5.8 | 14.3% | 0.21 | 2.7% | 9.4 |
| Cameron Brate | $5,100 | 5.6 | 19.2% | 0.31 | 3.2% | 9.1 |
| Chris Herndon | $5,400 | 5.1 | 12.7% | 0.18 | 2.2% | 8.7 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,800 | 4.9 | 17.8% | 0.26 | 3.4% | 8.2 |
| Trey Burton | $4,800 | 4.8 | 18.9% | 0.28 | 3.5% | 8.3 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,500 | 4.6 | 20.2% | 0.32 | 2.5% | 8.2 |
| Delanie Walker | $5,400 | 4.5 | 10.6% | 0.14 | 2.3% | 8.1 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,000 | 4.4 | 9.3% | 0.12 | 0.8% | 7.3 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $4,700 | 4.4 | 16.9% | 0.24 | 1.8% | 7.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
It's Darren Waller ($6,800), Travis Kelce ($6,700), Zach Ertz ($6,000), and Hunter Henry ($6,400) with somewhat reasonable boom/bust scores and decent shots for 15-plus FanDuel points. Other than that, Greg Olsen ($5,300) is shaping up as the best cash-game option, followed by possibly punting with Noah Fant ($4,600).
Tournament Standouts
Waller, Kelce, Henry, and Ertz are at least 25% likely to hit 15 FanDuel points. Nobody else is above 9.5%. The nine tight ends with a 75th-percentile outcome of at least 10.0 FanDuel points are Waller, Henry, Kelce, Ertz, Olsen, T.J. Hockenson ($5,000), Jimmy Graham ($6,000), Fant, and Eric Ebron ($5,200).
