2019 NFL Power Rankings: Week 11
After an interesting week of football, it was the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks who found themselves taking the biggest leap forward in our rankings, while the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts were among the teams to fall the most in our Power Rankings.
Here are our Week 11 NFL Power Rankings:
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | -14.48 | 2-7 | 0.10% | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -11.47 | 2-7 | 0.10% | 32 | 20 | 0 |
| 30 | Cincinnati Bengals | -10.54 | 0-9 | 0.00% | 27 | 29 | -1 |
| 29 | Washington Redskins | -8.86 | 1-8 | 0.00% | 28 | 27 | 1 |
| 28 | New York Giants | -8.55 | 2-8 | 0.00% | 29 | 23 | 0 |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals | -6.81 | 3-6-1 | 0.00% | 11 | 32 | 0 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | -4.96 | 3-6 | 4.70% | 18 | 25 | 0 |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | -4.6 | 3-5-1 | 0.20% | 17 | 26 | -1 |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills | -4.56 | 6-3 | 52.30% | 21 | 22 | -1 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.93 | 2-7 | 0.00% | 7 | 31 | 2 |
The Miami Dolphins have now won their last two matchups against the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts. While those two wins will not have a major impact on the standings or playoff implications, the Dolphins are out to prove that maybe they aren’t quite as bad as they’ve been made out to be so far this season.
Per TeamRankings, the Dolphins have the sixth-toughest scheduled to close out the 2019. That, however, may be a positive thing for this Dolphins team. They currently sit at less than a 1.0% chance of making the playoffs, so getting the highest draft pick possible in the 2020 draft is the next best thing they have to look forward to.
After winning their last two games, the Dolphins may have put themselves out of the running for the number one overall draft pick in 2020, as the Cincinnati Bengals have yet to win this season and are the current frontrunners to receive that pick. Both the Dolphins and Bengals should be looking to draft a quarterback in 2020, and the team with the worst record between these two at the end of the season will get their choice of who they want to be their next franchise signal-caller.
After losing to the Cleveland Browns last week, the Buffalo Bills have now lost two of their last three games, keeping them in the bottom-tier of our Power Rankings. Oddly enough, they still have a 52.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, with just seven weeks remaining in the regular season.
The Bills have had a relatively easy schedule so far this season, but things are about to get much tougher for them over the next seven weeks. The Bills currently have the toughest schedule across the league to close out 2019. They’ll face the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and Dallas Cowboys during that stretch, three teams who all currently rank within the top-six of our rankings.
After a layup matchup against the Dolphins this week, things are going to get much tougher for Josh Allen to finish the season as well. In his final six games, Allen is set to face four defenses who rank in the top-12 in Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play (Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, and Ravens). While Allen should still be able to produce numbers rushing the ball, look for his passing numbers to take a hit.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.51 | 4-5 | 8.80% | 25 | 16 | -1 |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | -2.08 | 4-5 | 1.20% | 31 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.89 | 4-6 | 3.20% | 12 | 24 | 0 |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | -1.15 | 5-4 | 41.00% | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.88 | 3-6 | 0.40% | 13 | 19 | -5 |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.78 | 5-4 | 36.00% | 20 | 14 | -5 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | -0.72 | 5-4 | 10.50% | 19 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | -0.43 | 3-6 | 2.40% | 26 | 6 | 2 |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | 0.27 | 5-5 | 13.90% | 24 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.56 | 5-4 | 49.50% | 15 | 15 | 2 |
One team who we saw drop significantly in our rankings this week was the Indianapolis Colts. This drop comes after a home loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, with Brian Hoyer as the Colts starting quarterback.
The Colts have had terrible injury luck this season, particularly at the quarterback position. That said, there is still some hope left for this Colts team, as they currently have a 36.0% chance to make the playoffs this season.
While the Colts offense has struggled this year – ranking 27th overall in total passing offense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics – they have been rather successful running the ball. They currently rank in the top-10 in total rushing offense, which plays a key part in this Colts offense. The Colts are rushing the ball on 46.21% of their plays this season, which ranks in the top-five of team rushing play percentage this season.
After beating the Kansas City Chiefs in a home thriller last week, the Tennessee Titans find themselves climbing up our rankings this week by four spots.
The Titans defense has been lights out this season. Per our numbers, they currently rank fifth in overall defense, which has been anchored by their rushing defense that ranks fourth overall.
Ryan Tannehill has led this team to three victories in his first four starts as a Titan, showing he’s still capable of being a starting quarterback in the NFL. While he’s only started four games for the Titans, Tannehill’s off to a career-best start in completion percentage. He’s currently completing 71.3% of his passes, putting him above the 70% mark for the first time in his seven NFL seasons.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.68 | 5-4 | 12.30% | 22 | 8 | -1 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.78 | 8-2 | 92.30% | 9 | 18 | 3 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 3.95 | 7-2 | 93.70% | 10 | 9 | -7 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.03 | 5-4 | 75.20% | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | Houston Texans | 5.5 | 6-3 | 81.40% | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6.51 | 8-2 | 97.80% | 4 | 11 | -1 |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 6.57 | 5-4 | 54.20% | 2 | 21 | 2 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.21 | 6-4 | 84.40% | 3 | 13 | -1 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 7.53 | 7-3 | 91.00% | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.44 | 7-2 | 96.50% | 1 | 17 | 2 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 12.89 | 8-1 | 100.00% | 16 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 13.46 | 8-1 | 96.80% | 14 | 1 | 0 |
After a big win on Monday Night football -- handing the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season -- the Seattle Seahawks climb back into the top-tier of our rankings for the first time since Week 4. While their record has been great all season, the Seahawks are finally starting to look like a complete team both offensively and defensively.
Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, Seattle's offense ranks in the top-10 across the league, while their defense ranks 18th overall. There is room for improvement on the defensive side of the ball for this team, however, Quandre Diggs provided some much-needed assistance in that department against the Niners in his first game as a Seahawk. Diggs looked good all night and finished the game with an interception.
After their bye this week, the Seahawks will look to heal up and get ready for the remaining six weeks of the regular season. With a 92.3% chance to make the playoffs, Seattle looks primed to make another run in 2019.
After a tough loss on Sunday to the Atlanta Falcons, the New Orleans Saints find themselves dropping seven spots in our Power Rankings this week. It was a tough beat against a divisional rival who had only one win under their belt prior to playing the Saints. With a 7-2 record, the Saints will be just fine, but every win matters in the ultra-competitive NFC.
When I say the Saints are fine, I mean that not only is their record fine, both their offense and defense are playing fine as well. In fact, both the Saints offense and defense rank inside the top-10 this season, per our numbers.
However, the Saints defense did take a significant hit last week by losing their number one cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, to a hamstring injury. It sounds like Lattimore will be week-to-week with this injury and will miss the upcoming game for the Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucs’ wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will look to expose a suffering secondary.
