NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Monday Night

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Dec 16th, 2019
Michael Thomas makes a great pick for the MVP spot due to his role in the Saints' offense. What other players should you consider tonight?

The Indianapolis Colts are headed south to The Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Bookmakers currently have the home Saints as -9.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 47.5, setting us up for what could be a high-scoring but one-sided game. As of now, the Over is looking strong since it has received 86% of the bets and 72% of the money, according to oddsFire.

MVP Considerations

Michael Thomas ($15,500) - The Saints hold a 28.50 implied team total tonight and should see a majority of the ownership due to that, so let's look at Michael Thomas to start. He is simply the best receiver in the league and needs only 23 receptions to set a new single-season record. The Saints paid him a whole lot of money in the offseason for this very reason -- he is the best receiver in the NFL. He comes in with 21 FanDuel points or more in five of his last six games, over 100 yards in each of those games, along with over 10 targets in each game.

Thomas is a high-floor and a high-ceiling player, but you are paying a pretty penny to roster him. Regardless of the price, you should look to get him in your lineups due to the fact the Colts are allowing the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers -- 31.0 --, putting Thomas in a phenomenal spot to continue pushing towards that season record.

T.Y. Hilton ($11,000) - The report this morning is that Hilton is a game-time decision and is "trending in the right direction." This is good news for the receiver who has missed the past two games for the Colts and has battled injuries all season. If he is a full-go, Hilton is in a spot to make a great MVP option for a few reasons. First off, the Colts are underdogs by more than one score and on the road. We generally see higher ownership with the favorites, so this is a good thing in tournaments. Next, the Saints are allowing 33.6 FanDuel per game to wide receivers -- the third-most in the league.

This is a legitimately strong matchup for Hilton, but solely relying on his health status prior to game time.

Jacoby Brissett ($14,000) - Being a road underdog isn't the normal spot to look at an MVP option, but we should still see plenty of production from Brissett. If a team is trailing, they will be forced to lean on the passing game instead of the running game in order to catch-up. This is relatively simple and a basic concept in fantasy football. But what makes this matchup so good for Brissett? Well, the Saints are legitimately great against the run, allowing the sixth-fewest FanDuel points -- 17.4 -- to running backs per game. But, the same cannot be said for their pass defense, as they are allowing the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks and -- as mentioned right above -- they are the third-worst against wide receivers.

Value Plays

Latavius Murray ($8,500) - Murray is the clear second-string running back for the Saints, but he comes in much cheaper compared to Alvin Kamara and should be lower owned. Kamara hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3 -- this is a known thing in the fantasy community. Murray has more touchdowns on the season -- six -- compared to Kamara, and yes, some of those came when Kamara was hurt. But, Murray has still played on 30% of the snaps or more in three of the past four games and comes in as our top value play for players under $10K tonight.

Is Murray guaranteed production tonight? No. But the leverage Murray offers in tournaments is valuable, along with the savings.

Wil Lutz ($9,500) - I'll be honest, I kinda hate doing this, but you should consider rostering a kicker tonight. The Saints have a 28.50 implied team total and are expected to be scoring points -- that much is clear. Lutz is averaging over 10 FanDuel points per game this season, has 10 points or more in five-straight games, and should be able to match that tonight.

The issue when rostering a kicker is that he brings very little potential upside, which often drives people away. But, this also means he has a safe floor unless the Saints -- somehow -- get completely shutout.

Nyheim Hines ($8,000) - With Marlon Mack back from his injury, it can certainly drive people in his direction, but you want to go the other way. Last week, Mack played on 41% of the snaps, had 13 rushing attempts, and no use in the passing game. Hines, on the other hand, played on 56% of the snaps, saw almost no work in the rushing game, and saw five targets with four receptions. While the Saints are "strong" against running backs -- as noted above --, that is overall running back production. They are rather weak against running backs in the passing game, allowing the fifth-most receptions, tied for the fourth-most touchdowns, but have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards.

Hines is yet another player to offer tournament leverage and have a good matchup to attack. If the Colts are playing from behind, they will turn to the passing game and will have Hines on the field over Mack.