4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 16
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season.
Quarterback
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Price: $7,300
In what could be a low floor but high upside play, Drew Lock is a quarterback worth considering when it comes to lower-owned options.
The Denver Broncos are hosting the Detroit Lions in what might be an unexciting real-life football game -- the over/under is only 37.5 points -- but we should be able to find some fantasy value. Overall, this game should be very low-owned, as there are four games on the slate with totals sitting at 47 points or higher. Even with a somewhat unfavorable game environment, the Broncos have an implied total sitting at 22.0 and are -6.5-point favorites. They should be able to put up points against the Lions' defense, which is allowing 26 points per game on average.
When it comes to the Broncos' rising quarterback Lock, he has looked good so far in the three starts this season. Last week against the Chiefs was a rough outing, ending with only 208 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. But in the two games prior to that, he passed for five touchdowns and was over 300 yards in one of the games. He is showing a nice ceiling of points and only has three games under his belt. That level of production should be on display this week since the Lions are allowing 21.4 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks -- the sixth-most in the league.
The overall game environment isn't ideal, but the matchup for Lock is worth attacking when it comes to tournaments this week.
Running Back
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $7,300
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a very ugly game on Monday Night but are now at home with a chance to pick up the win.
There is no other way to put it -- that Monday Night game against the New Orleans Saints was terrible. There was nothing to take from that game other than the fact it was an island game and nationally televised. We are at the point of the season where plenty of teams are out of the playoffs and that can cause some DFS players to rely on players "who have something to play for." This isn't a new concept, but the combination of the Colts being out of the playoffs and coming off a dud game that everyone saw has me super interested.
Since coming back from his injury, Marlon Mack has played on 41% and 45% of the offensive snaps, seen a total of 24 carries for 57 yards, and scored one touchdown. Truly modest production, but this week against the Carolina Panthers, he could match that in the first half alone. Well, maybe not the total carries, but the yards and the touchdown are in play, since the Panthers are allowing 28.2 FanDuel points per game to running backs. That is the worst in the league! The absolute most FanDuel points come via the Panthers' front seven -- or the lack thereof.
Mack is in a phenomenal spot versus the Panthers and coming off a bad game, so few people should be looking here.
Wide Receiver
John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Price: $5,200
The Cincinnati Bengals are on the road to take on the Miami Dolphins.
I'm not sure what else to say to open this part up, but we have a combined four wins between the teams, and I'm here to tell you there are viable fantasy options in this game. Both teams are bad in a lot of aspects but mainly their defenses. This is actually a good thing, though, since it should allow the offenses to flow freely and, hopefully, post plenty of fantasy points in the process. We've been attacking the Dolphins' defense all season long, so I'm not sure why we shouldn't continue with the flow chart this week?
The Dolphins are allowing 33.3 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers -- the fourth-worst in the league -- giving us one of the best matchups on the slate. Sitting all the way down at $5.2K, we have John Ross, who is back from his injury and should be looking to put out some good tape to end the season, as he is sitting on a club option for next year. This is the spot for him to post a big game and get back to the form he showed in the first two games of the season when he went for 270 yards on 11 receptions with 3 touchdowns.
His 11.7 aDOT (average depth of target) is the highest on the Bengals, and he's still second on the team in market share of air yards, despite missing several weeks with an injury. This is a John Ross blow-up spot, so get on board.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
FanDuel Price: $5,900
In what should be the game of the week, the Philadelphia Eagles are hosting the Dallas Cowboys to decide the NFC East.
The over/under is set at 46.5 points, and both teams have implied totals over 22 points, so we're in a good spot for some scoring. If you are looking to get exposure to this game, it might be via the backup tight end for the Eagles, Dallas Goedert. We know that the Eagles' wide receivers are very thin right now and that caused Goedert to play on 84% of the snaps last week, his second-highest rate of the season. In that game, he got six targets, giving him six targets or more in five straight weeks, a rate only Zach Ertz on the team can match or exceed.
The Cowboys haven't been strong against tight ends this season, allowing 11.0 FanDuel points per game to them -- the seventh-most in the league. It's clear that Ertz leads the team with 19 red zone targets, but with Alshon Jeffery out for the year, Goedert jumps up to the third-highest on the team. With his expanded role in the offense, Goedert makes a nice pivot away from what should be a higher-owned Ertz.
