Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 16
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and quarterbacks , this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $9,300 | 24.7 | 34.6% | 1.80 | 49.3% | 30.3 |
| Russell Wilson | $8,300 | 21.9 | 33.4% | 1.27 | 33.2% | 26.8 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,700 | 19.4 | 31.8% | 1.03 | 22.9% | 24.3 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,000 | 19.3 | 26.2% | 0.81 | 21.9% | 24.3 |
| Drew Brees | $8,200 | 19.2 | 21.0% | 0.53 | 20.2% | 23.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,800 | 19.0 | 30.0% | 0.95 | 21.6% | 24.3 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,700 | 18.6 | 29.1% | 0.88 | 21.7% | 24.1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,400 | 18.2 | 30.7% | 0.97 | 19.7% | 23.4 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,700 | 17.7 | 22.2% | 0.61 | 15.1% | 22.2 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,500 | 17.7 | 27.2% | 0.76 | 18.1% | 23.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,500 | 17.3 | 26.1% | 0.69 | 15.9% | 22.7 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,100 | 16.6 | 26.3% | 0.71 | 13.1% | 21.6 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,800 | 16.6 | 28.9% | 0.83 | 12.1% | 21.3 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,300 | 15.8 | 21.2% | 0.49 | 10.7% | 20.7 |
| Drew Lock | $7,300 | 15.5 | 18.1% | 0.40 | 8.8% | 20.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,400 | 15.2 | 16.9% | 0.34 | 9.5% | 20.1 |
| Derek Carr | $7,300 | 15.1 | 18.3% | 0.40 | 9.1% | 20.2 |
| Will Grier | $6,000 | 14.7 | 34.4% | 1.04 | 9.3% | 20.1 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $7,000 | 14.5 | 20.3% | 0.42 | 6.6% | 19.5 |
| Devlin Hodges | $6,900 | 14.0 | 19.2% | 0.40 | 7.7% | 19.1 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,400 | 13.8 | 14.1% | 0.27 | 7.4% | 19.0 |
| David Blough | $6,600 | 12.7 | 17.2% | 0.33 | 5.5% | 17.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
So, it's Lamar Jackson ($9,300) week. Jackson is nearly twice as likely to return 3x value as he is to fall shy of 2x value and rates out as one of the best cash-game plays of the season in his matchup with the Cleveland Browns. Especially compared to the rest of the quarterbacks, Jackson is priority one for me this week.
Russell Wilson ($8,300) is a cut above everyone else, followed by a tier of Will Grier ($6,000), Matt Ryan ($7,700), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400), and Ryan Tannehill ($7,800). With value at running back, I'll be leaving Grier out of cash-game consideration and would go with Ryan or Tannehill if I can't get to Lamar.
Tournament Standouts
Jackson is nearly 50% likely to return 25.0 FanDuel points, which isn't really surprising based on his baseline projection. Wilson is at 33.2%, so in terms of raw point totals, these two have ceilings worth spending up for.
The best values when using 75th-percentile outcomes are Grier, Jackson, Wilson, Fitzpatrick, Ryan, Gardner Minshew ($6,800), Kyler Murray ($7,700), Tannehill, and Philip Rivers ($7,500).
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,800 | 21.3 | 13.2% | 1.64 | 57.1% | 27.8 |
| Chris Carson | $8,200 | 17.5 | 21.3% | 1.99 | 38.8% | 23.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,700 | 17.1 | 19.0% | 1.71 | 38.7% | 24.2 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,500 | 17.1 | 26.1% | 2.41 | 35.7% | 22.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,200 | 16.9 | 24.7% | 2.64 | 31.7% | 21.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,800 | 16.4 | 10.9% | 1.32 | 32.9% | 22.0 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,800 | 16.0 | 17.4% | 1.80 | 33.5% | 21.8 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,800 | 15.3 | 10.0% | 0.95 | 26.6% | 20.4 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $7,000 | 14.5 | 18.3% | 1.84 | 21.1% | 19.1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,100 | 14.1 | 17.2% | 1.51 | 21.8% | 19.2 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,400 | 13.9 | 11.0% | 1.62 | 19.2% | 18.6 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,200 | 13.7 | 27.4% | 2.27 | 20.7% | 19.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,800 | 13.7 | 15.9% | 1.51 | 17.4% | 18.0 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,600 | 13.5 | 10.5% | 0.94 | 18.7% | 18.5 |
| James Conner | $7,400 | 13.4 | 12.3% | 1.17 | 20.6% | 18.8 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,300 | 13.2 | 11.0% | 1.11 | 17.4% | 18.1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,300 | 13.0 | 21.1% | 1.71 | 15.7% | 18.0 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,000 | 12.9 | 6.3% | 0.68 | 15.1% | 17.4 |
| Kenyan Drake | $7,100 | 12.9 | 11.7% | 1.08 | 15.6% | 18.0 |
| Adrian Peterson | $6,500 | 12.3 | 16.0% | 1.45 | 14.5% | 17.3 |
| DeAndre Washington | $5,600 | 11.4 | 21.0% | 1.42 | 9.5% | 15.8 |
| Patrick Laird | $5,500 | 10.4 | 15.6% | 1.24 | 5.7% | 14.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,100 | 10.1 | 8.6% | 0.80 | 4.0% | 14.3 |
| Jalen Richard | $5,200 | 8.9 | 12.4% | 0.90 | 3.4% | 12.8 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,500 | 8.1 | 6.9% | 0.64 | 1.8% | 12.2 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,500 | 7.4 | 4.4% | 0.48 | 0.8% | 11.3 |
| Chris Thompson | $5,000 | 7.3 | 6.9% | 0.62 | 0.6% | 11.1 |
| Myles Gaskin | $5,200 | 7.2 | 5.7% | 0.48 | 0.6% | 10.6 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.2% | 0.22 | 0.4% | 9.7 |
| Boston Scott | $5,400 | 6.7 | 1.4% | 0.27 | 0.1% | 9.6 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $5,600 | 5.2 | 0.6% | 0.11 | 0.1% | 8.1 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $5,900 | 5.1 | 0.2% | 0.06 | 0.0% | 7.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts
The sims love Alvin Kamara ($7,200) at his lowered price in a shootout spot with the Tennessee Titans. Leonard Fournette ($7,500), Devonta Freeman ($6,200), and Chris Carson ($8,200) all rate out as top-tier cash-game plays based on floor/ceiling combinations. Carson, Freeman, and Kamara are my preferences.
DeAndre Washington ($5,600) is cheap but isn't quite as much of a guarantee as we may hope. The Oakland Raiders are road underdogs in what could be a slow-paced game. He's still an option if spending up for Jackson or wide receivers. He is eighth in terms of raw value using his median projection.
Tournament Standouts
Using 75th-percentile outcomes, the best values are Freeman, Fournette, Kamara, Carson, Phillip Lindsay ($6,300), Washington, Joe Mixon ($7,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700), Melvin Gordon ($7,000), and Le'Veon Bell ($7,100).
It's worth noting that Christian McCaffrey ($10,800) unsurprisingly has the best 75th-percentile outcome and is ninth in boom/bust ratio. He's playable in all formats, provided you like the value at other positions.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,000 | 19.6 | 57.0% | 2.28 | 70.3% | 25.4 |
| Julio Jones | $8,000 | 16.5 | 53.3% | 1.92 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,600 | 13.5 | 40.2% | 1.05 | 41.1% | 18.1 |
| DJ Moore | $6,600 | 13.0 | 49.2% | 1.61 | 37.6% | 17.1 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,700 | 12.9 | 47.0% | 1.37 | 37.4% | 17.4 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,200 | 12.8 | 39.8% | 1.04 | 36.9% | 17.1 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,700 | 12.4 | 34.6% | 0.79 | 36.4% | 17.2 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,900 | 12.3 | 39.0% | 1.03 | 31.3% | 16.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | $7,100 | 12.2 | 39.1% | 0.98 | 33.6% | 16.9 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 12.0 | 43.0% | 1.11 | 29.8% | 15.9 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,900 | 12.0 | 39.5% | 0.98 | 32.3% | 16.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,500 | 11.8 | 40.8% | 1.06 | 30.4% | 16.1 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,400 | 11.6 | 31.6% | 0.71 | 30.6% | 16.0 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,300 | 11.5 | 44.2% | 1.20 | 27.6% | 16.3 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,300 | 11.4 | 26.7% | 0.56 | 24.5% | 14.9 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,900 | 11.3 | 47.9% | 1.43 | 29.9% | 15.9 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $6,700 | 10.7 | 32.3% | 0.67 | 23.5% | 14.8 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,500 | 10.3 | 29.4% | 0.64 | 18.3% | 13.7 |
| Mike Williams | $6,500 | 10.3 | 31.8% | 0.69 | 21.2% | 14.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,300 | 10.3 | 35.8% | 0.82 | 21.0% | 14.3 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,000 | 10.0 | 37.0% | 0.89 | 20.7% | 14.1 |
| Robby Anderson | $6,100 | 9.9 | 33.2% | 0.72 | 19.7% | 13.7 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,000 | 9.5 | 34.3% | 0.75 | 16.5% | 13.3 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,300 | 9.5 | 23.9% | 0.48 | 10.5% | 12.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | $6,000 | 9.3 | 29.8% | 0.61 | 13.2% | 13.0 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,700 | 9.1 | 33.7% | 0.73 | 16.1% | 13.1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,700 | 9.1 | 33.3% | 0.72 | 12.6% | 12.5 |
| Danny Amendola | $6,000 | 9.1 | 28.3% | 0.57 | 14.2% | 12.7 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,700 | 9.0 | 32.4% | 0.71 | 13.3% | 12.7 |
| James Washington | $6,600 | 9.0 | 19.2% | 0.33 | 9.5% | 12.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,800 | 8.7 | 18.2% | 0.30 | 12.1% | 12.4 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,700 | 8.7 | 28.1% | 0.59 | 11.2% | 12.1 |
| Zach Pascal | $6,600 | 8.5 | 20.6% | 0.36 | 12.8% | 12.5 |
| Chris Conley | $5,800 | 8.4 | 27.7% | 0.52 | 11.1% | 12.1 |
| Golden Tate | $6,200 | 8.4 | 24.4% | 0.44 | 11.3% | 12.3 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,600 | 8.3 | 29.7% | 0.61 | 10.3% | 12.0 |
| Greg Ward | $5,700 | 7.9 | 23.1% | 0.41 | 5.6% | 11.0 |
| Corey Davis | $5,200 | 7.8 | 31.1% | 0.60 | 9.7% | 11.3 |
| Russell Gage | $5,100 | 7.7 | 33.4% | 0.71 | 8.6% | 11.5 |
| Randall Cobb | $5,300 | 7.5 | 28.8% | 0.55 | 6.4% | 11.0 |
| John Ross III | $5,200 | 7.4 | 29.4% | 0.57 | 7.8% | 11.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $5,400 | 7.3 | 25.0% | 0.45 | 7.3% | 10.8 |
| Steven Sims Jr. | $5,700 | 6.9 | 18.3% | 0.29 | 3.6% | 10.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
I had an interesting conversation with Jim Sannes on this week's Heat Check fantasy podcast about whether we'd rather pay up for Lamar Jackson or Michael Thomas ($9,000) in a cash game lineup. I erred for Jackson, but Thomas' elite boom/bust ratio makes him an appealing play as well.
Behind Thomas in floor/ceiling combo are Julio Jones ($8,000), D.J. Moore ($6,600), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Keenan Allen ($6,700), D.K. Metcalf ($6,300), and Tyler Boyd ($6,300). You can build a great lineup with these guys.
Tournament Standouts
Thomas, Jones, Kirk, Moore, and Allen are the top five in tournament value. The only 75th-percentile outcomes above 17.0 belong to Thomas (25.4), Jones (22.0), Tyler Lockett ($7,600; 18.1), Allen (17.4), Amari Cooper ($7,700; 17.2), Moore (17.1) and A.J. Brown (17.1).
The best ceilings by receivers priced at or below $6,500: Metcalf (16.3), Terry McLaurin ($6,500; 16.1), Boyd (15.9), Kirk (15.9), Sterling Shepard ($6,300; 14.3), and Mike Williams ($6,500; 14.3).
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | $6,900 | 13.0 | 45.8% | 1.35 | 38.4% | 17.2 |
| Darren Waller | $6,500 | 11.7 | 41.3% | 1.08 | 30.1% | 16.3 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,000 | 10.7 | 42.6% | 1.08 | 24.1% | 14.8 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | 10.2 | 33.2% | 0.70 | 23.2% | 14.6 |
| Hunter Henry | $6,100 | 9.7 | 34.4% | 0.73 | 18.5% | 13.6 |
| Jared Cook | $6,600 | 9.6 | 23.1% | 0.40 | 13.6% | 12.8 |
| Jack Doyle | $6,200 | 8.5 | 21.0% | 0.37 | 10.0% | 11.8 |
| Jacob Hollister | $5,700 | 7.9 | 26.3% | 0.49 | 9.8% | 11.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,900 | 7.9 | 20.2% | 0.34 | 7.2% | 11.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,300 | 7.6 | 27.4% | 0.52 | 6.8% | 11.1 |
| Noah Fant | $5,900 | 7.3 | 19.1% | 0.31 | 6.7% | 10.7 |
| Greg Olsen | $4,900 | 7.0 | 23.4% | 0.41 | 3.1% | 9.5 |
| Jason Witten | $5,800 | 6.9 | 17.4% | 0.28 | 4.7% | 10.3 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,700 | 6.3 | 25.9% | 0.47 | 2.3% | 9.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,400 | 6.2 | 14.6% | 0.21 | 2.2% | 8.9 |
| Kaden Smith | $5,100 | 5.4 | 9.9% | 0.13 | 0.5% | 7.8 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,000 | 5.0 | 10.5% | 0.14 | 0.6% | 7.7 |
| Hayden Hurst | $5,100 | 4.0 | 8.8% | 0.11 | 0.6% | 7.1 |
| Blake Jarwin | $5,300 | 4.0 | 6.7% | 0.08 | 0.5% | 6.8 |
Cash-Game Standouts
It's Zach Ertz ($6,900), it's Darren Waller ($6,500), and it's Austin Hooper ($6,000) and then everyone else. Ertz is the clear top priority, so the value at running back will come in handy. We also have a decision to make between Ertz and Jackson or the pricey receivers.
Tournament Standouts
Tight ends with at least a 10% chance to return 15 FanDuel points: Ertz (38.4%), Waller (30.1%), Hooper (24.1%), Mark Andrews ($6,500; 23.2%), Hunter Henry ($6,100; 18.5%), Jared Cook ($6,600; 13.6%), and Jack Doyle ($6,200; 10.0%). Jacob Hollister ($5,700; 9.8%) is close behind.
Mike Gesicki ($5,300) rates out as the best cheaper tight end and is the only one below $5,500 who really generates intrigue for me. The simulations also don't mind Greg Olsen ($4,900) and Tyler Eifert ($4,700).
