Pound the Under on Jalen Reagor's Receiving Yards Prop
Entering the 2020 NFL Draft, everyone knew the Philadelphia Eagles were going to address receiver. So the Eagles taking a wideout in Round 1 wasn't a shock, but which one they took may have surprised some people as they selected Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins.
The Eagles, with an aging receiver corps, obviously view Reagor as a great long-term pairing with franchise quarterback Carson Wentz. But how will Reagor produce in Year 1?
FanDuel Sportsbook has Reagor's rookie season receiving prop at 700.5 receiving yards (-112 on both sides). There are a lot of reasons to love the under here. Let's dig in.
Playing Time Concerns
Obviously, to get to 700-plus yards, Reagor needs to be on the field and get targets. That might not be as easy to do as you think despite Philly's 2019 injury woes at wideout.
Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson -- and pretty much every other Eagles wideout -- struggled with injuries last season. But D-Jax and Alshon are the two most relevant to Reagor's rookie-year production, because they're likely the two biggest roadblocks to Reagor getting on the field regularly.
Jackson played in just three games in 2019 while Jeffery saw action in 10. But with an offseason to get healthy, those two sit atop Philly's depth chart right now and are the favorites to start the year in two-wide sets, with a report earlier this offseason saying Alshon is still expected to be a "major part of the offense."
The Eagles also signed Marquise Goodwin and return J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward, so it's a crowded receiver room at the moment. With that said, given the first-round investment in Reagor, it stands to reason he'll have every chance to open the 2020 campaign ahead of Goodwin, Ward and JJAW.
Something working in Reagor's favor as far as playing time goes is Jeffery's injury history. Going into his age-30 campaign, Jeffrey has played just one full season since 2015 and has missed a combined 20 games in that span. Reagor would probably jump into close to an every-snap role if Alshon goes down again in 2020, and as we know, there's a better-than-decent chance Jeffery misses some time this coming year.
On the negative side, Reagor will likely have less on-field time this offseason due to the COVID-19 pandemic, hurting his chances of hitting the ground running.
Oh, and outside of Reagor's competition at receiver, Philly also boasts what is possibly the best tight end tandem in the league. In 2019, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert had 10 games in which they both played at least 67% of the snaps, so the Eagles' third wideout -- which could be Reagor when Alshon and D-Jax are healthy -- sees the field less than most number-three receivers. Goedert was in on at least 55% of the snaps in all 14 of his healthy games.
Back the Under
While Reagor may prove to be a stud in the long term, he'll likely have a tough time getting to 700 yards in 2020 without an injury to Jackson or Jeffery. Either of those two getting hurt is certainly within the realm of possibility -- as we saw a year ago -- but it's not something you want to rely on when betting this prop.
Jeffery, Jackson, Ertz and Goedert figure to hog targets this coming season, and Miles Sanders is a more-than-capable receiver out of the backfield. There's just a lot of mouths to feed in Philly when everyone is healthy, and Reagor probably isn't going to see enough volume to hit the over on this prop.
Our projections love the under, forecasting Reagor for 45.1 catches and 556.7 yards as a rookie. That's nearly 144 yards under the listed prop, and it's a bet you can feel confident about.
