NFL

Using Our Draft Kit to Win Your ESPN Fantasy Football League

We're all in the thick of fantasy football draft season, and while we may not have had as much training camp and preseason exposure as usual, the algorithms at numberFire haven't been sleeping.

And that's good news for us because our draft kit is fully customizable for your league settings, and we can use those to find leverage spots in fantasy football drafts.

Because your draft lobby will sort and rank players differently based on your site of choice, your favorite sleepers may be gone by the time you normally would draft them in your mocks. If your site ranks your 10th-round gem as a 7th-round pick, you have to adjust.

So, know your league settings and plan accordingly. I'm trying to help.

I ran numberFire's projections -- tailored to the default ESPN scoring setup -- to find the biggest discrepancies between our ranks and ESPN's default list.

Things to Know

1. ESPN's default scoring is PPR. Full-PPR scoring doesn't usually change how to value players within a position but does affect positional value compared to one another.

2. ESPN's default lineup is QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex. This means two receivers instead of three weekly -- unless you flex one.

3. Interceptions are -2 points. This makes interceptions a bit more costly than on some other sites. It may not seem like much, but a two- or three-pick day can be a fantasy destroyer.

Overvalued ESPN Players According to Our Projections

These are the biggest rank differentials inside ESPN's top 180, in terms of being overvalued based on our projections.

Player Position numberFire
Rank
ESPN
Rank
Differential
Parris Campbell WR 274 126 -148
Curtis Samuel WR 228 102 -126
Tee Higgins WR 275 154 -121
Damien Harris RB 242 132 -110
Justin Jackson RB 250 140 -110
Randall Cobb WR 259 149 -110
Larry Fitzgerald WR 257 148 -109
Mohamed Sanu WR 261 152 -109
Denzel Mims WR 262 153 -109
Robby Anderson WR 204 97 -107
Irv Smith Jr. TE 269 163 -106
Darrel Williams RB 264 160 -104
Rob Gronkowski TE 212 113 -99
A.J. Dillon RB 252 156 -96
Eric Ebron TE 258 162 -96
Benny Snell Jr. RB 251 158 -93
Chase Edmonds RB 229 139 -90
Jack Doyle TE 246 161 -85
Brandon Aiyuk WR 225 144 -81
Allen Lazard WR 230 150 -80
Sammy Watkins WR 221 145 -76
Darius Slayton WR 155 98 -57
Noah Fant TE 160 112 -48
Henry Ruggs WR 142 100 -42
John Brown WR 137 99 -38
Tyler Higbee TE 119 83 -36
Darrell Henderson RB 118 84 -34
Chris Herndon TE 169 135 -34
Michael Pittman Jr. WR 175 147 -28
Deebo Samuel WR 94 68 -26
Zach Ertz TE 65 42 -23
Justin Jefferson WR 132 109 -23
A.J. Brown WR 54 33 -21
Will Fuller WR 87 66 -21
T.J. Hockenson TE 136 115 -21
Jalen Reagor WR 172 151 -21


Because ESPN values quarterbacks and tight ends similarly to how we do, these are mostly running back and receiver picks. That just means individual evaluation discrepancies in value rather than a positional discrepancy.

The biggest gaps inside ESPN's top 100 include a lot of downfield receivers: Robby Anderson, Darius Slayton, Henry Ruggs, John Brown, and Will Fuller.

Tyler Higbee and Zach Ertz rate out as overvalued tight ends on ESPN, as well.

Undervalued ESPN Players According to Our Projections

Here's the opposite: players inside numberFire's top 180 with the biggest differentials in ESPN draft app ranking.

Player Position numberFire
Rank
ESPN
Rank
Differential
Antonio Gibson RB 63 129 66
Ke'Shawn Vaughn RB 96 159 63
Cam Newton QB 105 164 59
Marlon Mack RB 84 131 47
Jared Goff QB 127 166 39
Ryan Tannehill QB 130 165 35
Ryquell Armstead RB 59 91 32
Chris Thompson RB 103 133 30
James White RB 57 86 29
Todd Gurley RB 18 43 25
Josh Allen QB 95 119 24
Duke Johnson RB 104 128 24
James Conner RB 23 45 22
Kareem Hunt RB 35 57 22
Hunter Henry TE 89 110 21
Anthony Miller WR 106 127 21
Michael Gesicki TE 114 134 20
Melvin Gordon RB 25 44 19
Drew Brees QB 101 120 19
Matt Breida RB 70 88 18
Tom Brady QB 99 117 18
CeeDee Lamb WR 107 125 18
Jonathan Taylor RB 30 47 17
David Montgomery RB 41 58 17
Boston Scott RB 124 141 17
Mark Ingram RB 55 71 16
Matt Ryan QB 100 116 16
Ben Roethlisberger QB 122 138 16
Baker Mayfield QB 151 167 1
Chris Carson RB 24 39 15
David Johnson RB 26 40 14
Raheem Mostert RB 46 60 14
Dak Prescott QB 62 75 13


We're a little more bullish on some running backs than ESPN is. That includes not-quite-yet-starters Antonio Gibson, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Marlon Mack. The Leonard Fournette release leaves some value in the Jacksonville Jaguars' backfield in the form of Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson, as well.

Josh Allen, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are rare quarterbacks that numberFire's algorithm views both as a fantasy starters and heavily undervalued on a drafting app. ESPN pits a run of seven quarterbacks in the 110 range, and we can take advantage of that.

A Closer Look at the Top

Unlike with Yahoo where we saw a ton of differences inside the top-36 picks in the draft app, the list on ESPN is much smaller.

PlayerPositionnumberFire
Rank
ESPN
Rank
Differential
A.J. BrownWR5433-21
Courtland SuttonWR4530-15
Adam ThielenWR3727-10
Amari CooperWR3829-9
D.J. MooreWR3325-8
Calvin RidleyWR4032-8
Patrick MahomesQB4235-7
Robert WoodsWR4336-7


Part of this is because receivers are valued more appropriately in the full-PPR setup on ESPN. Our algorithms don't love receivers early in a half-PPR setup because we can initially project running backs for a healthy season. But with ESPN's PPR setting, it's a much sharper draft app compared to the way our algorithms expect the season to play out.