NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 1
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 1's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back | Rank | Passing Success Rate | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -0.12 | 6 | 34.20% | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.05 | 12 | 35.50% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.17 | 3 | 36.60% | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.11 | 15 | 37.50% | 4 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.37 | 1 | 38.00% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01 | 11 | 38.20% | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.05 | 8 | 40.50% | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.05 | 9 | 43.60% | 8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.09 | 14 | 44.40% | 9 |
| New England Patriots | -0.27 | 2 | 45.20% | 10 |
| Tennessee Titans | -0.05 | 7 | 45.50% | 11 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.12 | 16 | 45.90% | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.21 | 19 | 46.50% | 13 |
| New York Giants | 0.43 | 28 | 47.10% | 14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.21 | 20 | 48.20% | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.32 | 23 | 48.60% | 16 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.14 | 4 | 48.70% | 17 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.03 | 10 | 50.00% | 18 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.07 | 13 | 50.00% | 18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.26 | 22 | 50.00% | 18 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.49 | 29 | 54.50% | 21 |
| New York Jets | 0.34 | 24 | 55.10% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.13 | 17 | 55.60% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.37 | 25 | 56.70% | 24 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.56 | 31 | 57.90% | 25 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.43 | 27 | 58.30% | 26 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.26 | 21 | 59.10% | 27 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.38 | 26 | 59.30% | 28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.20 | 18 | 59.60% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.71 | 32 | 60.70% | 30 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.12 | 5 | 61.90% | 31 |
| Houston Texans | 0.52 | 30 | 66.70% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.14 | 49.00% |
Running Back Rushing
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.48 | 1 | 18.80% | 1 |
| New York Jets | -0.28 | 2 | 22.20% | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.15 | 7 | 24.10% | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.14 | 8 | 25.00% | 4 |
| New York Giants | -0.06 | 12 | 26.90% | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.21 | 5 | 35.00% | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.02 | 21 | 36.40% | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -0.01 | 16 | 37.10% | 8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.05 | 14 | 37.50% | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.01 | 19 | 37.50% | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.05 | 13 | 38.70% | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.01 | 17 | 38.90% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.26 | 4 | 39.30% | 13 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.12 | 9 | 40.00% | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns | -0.20 | 6 | 40.90% | 15 |
| New England Patriots | -0.09 | 11 | 40.90% | 15 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01 | 18 | 40.90% | 15 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.02 | 20 | 42.40% | 18 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.15 | 28 | 43.50% | 19 |
| Houston Texans | 0.08 | 23 | 45.50% | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -0.10 | 10 | 47.80% | 21 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.10 | 24 | 48.00% | 22 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.28 | 3 | 50.00% | 23 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.02 | 15 | 50.00% | 23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.08 | 22 | 50.00% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.18 | 29 | 51.70% | 26 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.11 | 25 | 53.60% | 27 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.13 | 26 | 54.20% | 28 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.31 | 31 | 56.30% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.20 | 30 | 60.00% | 30 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.41 | 32 | 61.10% | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.13 | 27 | 63.60% | 32 |
| NFL Average | -0.01 | 42.30% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 57.1% | 22 | 27.3% | 1 | 71.4% | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | 75.0% | 28 | 31.8% | 2 | 42.9% | 10 |
| Washington Football Team | 75.0% | 28 | 33.3% | 3 | 56.3% | 20 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 28.6% | 8 | 35.0% | 4 | 83.3% | 27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 60.0% | 23 | 37.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 12 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 75.0% | 28 | 40.7% | 6 | 100.0% | 30 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33.3% | 10 | 41.7% | 7 | 44.4% | 11 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.0% | 1 | 44.4% | 8 | 40.0% | 6 |
| New England Patriots | 50.0% | 18 | 47.4% | 9 | 40.0% | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 37.5% | 12 | 48.1% | 10 | 80.0% | 26 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 28.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 11 | 66.7% | 22 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 64.7% | 26 | 52.2% | 12 | 83.3% | 27 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 14.3% | 3 | 53.8% | 13 | 50.0% | 12 |
| Green Bay Packers | 66.7% | 27 | 56.3% | 14 | 100.0% | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 20.0% | 6 | 57.9% | 15 | 33.3% | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 60.0% | 23 | 59.1% | 16 | 100.0% | 30 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14.3% | 3 | 60.0% | 17 | 37.5% | 5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 42.9% | 15 | 64.0% | 18 | 40.0% | 6 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 40.0% | 13 | 64.7% | 19 | 50.0% | 12 |
| New York Jets | 45.5% | 16 | 65.5% | 20 | 66.7% | 22 |
| Carolina Panthers | 50.0% | 18 | 66.7% | 21 | 66.7% | 22 |
| New York Giants | 16.7% | 5 | 66.7% | 21 | 25.0% | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 45.5% | 16 | 66.7% | 21 | 50.0% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 50.0% | 18 | 68.4% | 24 | 57.1% | 21 |
| New Orleans Saints | 40.0% | 13 | 68.4% | 24 | 40.0% | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 100.0% | 31 | 69.2% | 26 | 50.0% | 12 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.0% | 1 | 69.4% | 27 | 33.3% | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 36.4% | 11 | 70.4% | 28 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Denver Broncos | 60.0% | 23 | 72.0% | 29 | 50.0% | 12 |
| Houston Texans | 25.0% | 7 | 72.7% | 30 | 83.3% | 27 |
| Cleveland Browns | 100.0% | 31 | 73.3% | 31 | 55.6% | 19 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.0% | 18 | 76.9% | 32 | 50.0% | 12 |
| NFL Average | 43.8% | 57.1% | 54.8% |
