NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 2
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 2's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.06 | 5 | 39.6% | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -0.01 | 7 | 39.7% | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.04 | 6 | 41.3% | 3 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.13 | 2 | 41.8% | 4 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.05 | 10 | 42.0% | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.09 | 3 | 42.2% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.06 | 11 | 43.7% | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.13 | 1 | 44.4% | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.26 | 19 | 45.5% | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.04 | 9 | 46.0% | 10 |
| New York Giants | 0.27 | 20 | 47.0% | 11 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.29 | 21 | 47.1% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.02 | 8 | 47.4% | 13 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.09 | 4 | 48.2% | 14 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.22 | 18 | 49.2% | 15 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.38 | 29 | 49.3% | 16 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.35 | 26 | 50.0% | 17 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.33 | 24 | 50.0% | 17 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.34 | 25 | 51.5% | 19 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.31 | 22 | 52.1% | 20 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.20 | 17 | 52.3% | 21 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.10 | 14 | 53.1% | 22 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.39 | 30 | 53.5% | 23 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.16 | 15 | 53.8% | 24 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.10 | 13 | 53.8% | 24 |
| New York Jets | 0.32 | 23 | 54.4% | 26 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.18 | 16 | 54.9% | 27 |
| New England Patriots | 0.08 | 12 | 57.4% | 28 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.43 | 32 | 57.5% | 29 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.38 | 28 | 59.6% | 30 |
| Houston Texans | 0.36 | 27 | 60.7% | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.40 | 31 | 61.1% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.16 | 49.5% |
Running Back Rushing
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.20 | 3 | 25.0% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.27 | 1 | 26.3% | 2 |
| New York Jets | -0.02 | 12 | 26.7% | 3 |
| New York Giants | -0.01 | 13 | 29.8% | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.07 | 10 | 34.3% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.00 | 16 | 34.5% | 6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.10 | 8 | 35.0% | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.13 | 5 | 38.8% | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.07 | 19 | 39.5% | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.16 | 4 | 39.6% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -0.04 | 11 | 40.0% | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.09 | 9 | 40.0% | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.13 | 6 | 40.4% | 13 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 14 | 41.0% | 14 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.20 | 26 | 41.5% | 15 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.03 | 18 | 42.6% | 16 |
| Cleveland Browns | -0.21 | 2 | 43.6% | 17 |
| Houston Texans | 0.24 | 30 | 46.3% | 18 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.02 | 17 | 47.1% | 19 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.13 | 7 | 47.1% | 19 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.22 | 27 | 48.5% | 21 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.09 | 20 | 48.9% | 22 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.31 | 32 | 49.0% | 23 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.16 | 25 | 50.8% | 24 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.11 | 23 | 50.9% | 25 |
| New England Patriots | 0.00 | 15 | 51.1% | 26 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.10 | 22 | 52.3% | 27 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.09 | 21 | 52.4% | 28 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.23 | 28 | 53.1% | 29 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.30 | 31 | 57.9% | 30 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.23 | 29 | 58.5% | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.16 | 24 | 62.5% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.04 | 44.0% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 46.2% | 16 | 43.5% | 1 | 55.0% | 18 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 50.0% | 18 | 43.8% | 2 | 41.2% | 7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 61.1% | 27 | 47.6% | 3 | 63.6% | 25 |
| Washington Football Team | 50.0% | 18 | 47.7% | 4 | 52.4% | 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 36.4% | 8 | 48.7% | 5 | 68.4% | 27 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 29.4% | 3 | 48.8% | 6 | 60.0% | 22 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 60.0% | 25 | 51.7% | 7 | 43.8% | 11 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 18.2% | 1 | 52.0% | 8 | 37.5% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 46.2% | 16 | 52.1% | 9 | 56.3% | 19 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.9% | 12 | 52.2% | 10 | 47.1% | 13 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 75.0% | 32 | 52.6% | 11 | 83.3% | 31 |
| Cleveland Browns | 50.0% | 18 | 54.2% | 12 | 58.3% | 21 |
| Green Bay Packers | 69.2% | 29 | 54.3% | 13 | 85.7% | 32 |
| Tennessee Titans | 57.1% | 23 | 54.8% | 14 | 60.0% | 22 |
| New York Giants | 45.5% | 15 | 55.0% | 15 | 42.9% | 9 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 52.2% | 21 | 56.8% | 16 | 50.0% | 14 |
| Denver Broncos | 60.0% | 25 | 59.3% | 17 | 41.2% | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 35.7% | 6 | 59.5% | 18 | 35.7% | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30.0% | 4 | 60.6% | 19 | 61.5% | 24 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 37.5% | 9 | 60.7% | 20 | 14.3% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 41.2% | 11 | 61.0% | 21 | 45.0% | 12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 57.9% | 24 | 61.1% | 22 | 73.3% | 30 |
| Carolina Panthers | 37.5% | 9 | 61.5% | 23 | 53.8% | 17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 35.7% | 6 | 62.8% | 24 | 66.7% | 26 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 33.3% | 5 | 63.4% | 25 | 35.7% | 3 |
| New York Jets | 55.6% | 22 | 64.3% | 26 | 50.0% | 14 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 43.8% | 13 | 64.4% | 27 | 70.0% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 72.7% | 31 | 64.9% | 28 | 42.9% | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 22.2% | 2 | 65.2% | 29 | 37.5% | 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 71.4% | 30 | 65.9% | 30 | 33.3% | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 63.6% | 28 | 69.0% | 31 | 57.1% | 20 |
| Houston Texans | 44.4% | 14 | 72.2% | 32 | 70.0% | 28 |
| NFL Average | 47.2% | 57.1% | 54.1% |
