Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Will the Favored Jaguars Beat the Dolphins?
Thursday Night Football opens Week 3, and we get an AFC clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.
Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
This Could Turn Into A Sneaky Shootout
If the first two weeks of the season are any indication, there could be some points put up tonight in Florida.
Taking a look at our power rankings, these are two teams that aren't particularly strong defensively as we have both ranked among the bottom-nine defenses. They have combined for only five sacks, and the Dolphins have yet to force a turnover on defense.
Gardner Minshew leads a Jacksonville offense that has passed for six touchdowns, and rookie running back James Robinson has been really good by both traditional and advanced metrics, posting 5.1 yards per carry along with a clip of 0.22 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per attempt.
One thing that could slow the scoring today is pace. The Jags rank last in situation-neutral pace through two weeks (34.18 seconds), while Miami is not playing fast, either, at 29.72 seconds (17th).
Other Bets to Consider
Looking at oddsFire, the public is backing the home Jaguars on the spread -- 78% of the bets and 80% of the cash on the spread has come in on Jacksonville, who is a 3.0-point favorite.
Our algorithm likes Jacksonville, too. We have them winning 66.6% of the time, and we give them a 53.08% chance of covering, as well.
For a fun prop bet, Robinson has a very low over/under on receiving yards at just 11.5 yards -- a mark he has bested in both Week 1 (28 yards) and Week 2 (18 yards). He's a big part of the offense, and his four-target game last week is a good sign that he will be involved in the passing game.
Historical Betting Trends
-- The Jaguars weren't setting the world on fire against-the-spread (ATS) in 2019, posting a 7-9 mark.
-- The Dolphins, however, were fairly solid ATS, posting a 9-7 clip.
-- These teams don't have a ton of history, meeting only nine teams, with the Jaguars holding a 5-4 edge overall. The Dolphins last beat the Jaguars in 2014.
-- The over hit in six of the Dolphins' last seven contests of 2019.
