Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 3

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations
It's Kyler Murray week. He has the best projection range at a reasonable quarterback salary in a shootout. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are viable cash-game picks in a shootout of their own, but if looking to save some salary, it's Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford who pop with the best floor/ceiling combinations behind Murray.

We shouldn't overlook Josh Allen in tournaments, as he's got a strong median projection with a worthwhile ceiling. The matchup and the fact that he's not in either of the shootouts means he should go overlooked in GPPs.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations
There are a lot of potential value spots for running backs, but we shouldn't really feel the urge to chase them too much because backs with much better roles are coming in with reasonable salaries. Jonathan Taylor, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, and even Devin Singletary with Zack Moss out.

From a raw ceiling standpoint, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, and Sanders kind of separate. Henry, after a bust week at high popularity in Week 2, should be a stellar tournament pivot.

As for the buzzy guys stepping in for injured running backs -- Jerick McKinnon, Mike Davis, the New York Giants' backs -- they just don't rate out that well by comparison. McKinnon could get pilfered by Jeff Wilson, Davis' salary isn't low enough to prioritize over finding ways to get up to Drake or Taylor, and the Giants aren't expected to score much.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations
DeAndre Hopkins, with few other "star" receivers on the slate, stands out way above the rest of the field from a floor/ceiling standpoint. The Seattle Seahawks' duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf rate out near the top of the board and are cash-game viable.

Three high-volume receivers in less appealing games sit top-eight in boom/bust ratio: Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and Adam Thielen. It'll be hard to get to them over either Seattle receiver due to game script, but I'll prioritize each in tournaments.

There are volatile plays in the $5,000 range with real upside: Michael Gallup, DeSean Jackson, CeeDee Lamb, and Mike Williams.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations
Tight end is kind of flat this week without the big three on the slate (or healthy). There's one true standout: Dallas Goedert at a salary of just $5,200. Jalen Reagor is out, so volume should be there in a promising game script for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Darren Waller has the best odds of double-digit FanDuel points but faces the New England Patriots, who could key on him. It's looking like a week to spend down at tight end, though value at running back would allow us to allocate enough salary to get to Waller for tournaments.