NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 3
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 3's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.09 | 2 | 38.5% | 1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.27 | 1 | 41.7% | 2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.07 | 10 | 41.9% | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.06 | 3 | 43.1% | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.01 | 7 | 43.4% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.00 | 5 | 44.1% | 6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.08 | 11 | 44.4% | 7 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 4 | 45.7% | 8 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.22 | 20 | 46.2% | 9 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.10 | 12 | 46.7% | 10 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.11 | 13 | 47.0% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.23 | 23 | 47.4% | 12 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.01 | 6 | 48.5% | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.32 | 28 | 48.7% | 14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.27 | 26 | 49.4% | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.19 | 19 | 49.5% | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.19 | 18 | 50.0% | 17 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.05 | 9 | 50.8% | 18 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.14 | 15 | 50.9% | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.27 | 25 | 51.4% | 20 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.30 | 27 | 52.1% | 21 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.17 | 16 | 52.3% | 22 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.25 | 24 | 52.4% | 23 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.17 | 17 | 52.8% | 24 |
| New York Giants | 0.39 | 31 | 52.9% | 25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.22 | 22 | 52.9% | 26 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.22 | 21 | 54.0% | 27 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.14 | 14 | 55.3% | 28 |
| New York Jets | 0.37 | 30 | 55.8% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.04 | 8 | 55.8% | 30 |
| Houston Texans | 0.33 | 29 | 57.6% | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.41 | 32 | 61.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.15 | 49.4% |
Running Back Rushing
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.27 | 1 | 23.1% | 1 |
| New York Jets | -0.02 | 15 | 27.0% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.23 | 2 | 28.3% | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.12 | 7 | 30.4% | 4 |
| New York Giants | -0.07 | 10 | 30.7% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.03 | 13 | 34.7% | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.15 | 5 | 35.1% | 7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.18 | 3 | 36.2% | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.14 | 6 | 36.8% | 9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -0.03 | 11 | 38.8% | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.02 | 14 | 39.7% | 11 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.01 | 16 | 40.5% | 12 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.16 | 4 | 40.8% | 13 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.19 | 27 | 41.0% | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 18 | 41.4% | 15 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.03 | 12 | 41.4% | 15 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.04 | 19 | 41.6% | 17 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.07 | 9 | 42.9% | 18 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.17 | 26 | 43.7% | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | -0.12 | 8 | 46.4% | 20 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.13 | 21 | 47.2% | 21 |
| Houston Texans | 0.21 | 28 | 48.8% | 22 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.09 | 20 | 49.1% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.13 | 22 | 49.3% | 24 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.26 | 30 | 50.0% | 25 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.15 | 23 | 50.7% | 26 |
| New England Patriots | -0.01 | 17 | 50.7% | 26 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.21 | 29 | 51.7% | 28 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.27 | 31 | 53.6% | 29 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.15 | 24 | 55.4% | 30 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.16 | 25 | 59.4% | 31 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.37 | 32 | 61.2% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.04 | 43.1% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 70.6% | 31 | 47.1% | 1 | 61.9% | 25 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.5% | 1 | 47.1% | 1 | 40.0% | 3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 56.3% | 27 | 47.3% | 3 | 58.3% | 22 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 55.0% | 25 | 47.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 11 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 35.7% | 5 | 49.0% | 5 | 48.3% | 10 |
| Chicago Bears | 33.3% | 3 | 51.4% | 6 | 55.0% | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | 42.1% | 12 | 51.4% | 7 | 54.8% | 17 |
| Buffalo Bills | 38.9% | 8 | 51.5% | 8 | 62.5% | 26 |
| Washington Football Team | 53.3% | 23 | 52.7% | 9 | 55.6% | 19 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 34.6% | 4 | 55.0% | 10 | 59.1% | 23 |
| Green Bay Packers | 60.7% | 28 | 55.1% | 11 | 76.9% | 32 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 48.4% | 18 | 55.4% | 12 | 38.1% | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 38.9% | 8 | 56.3% | 13 | 45.5% | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 45.9% | 15 | 56.6% | 14 | 57.1% | 21 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 50.0% | 19 | 56.7% | 15 | 70.4% | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 47.1% | 16 | 57.1% | 16 | 44.4% | 5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 47.6% | 17 | 57.9% | 17 | 56.5% | 20 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 40.0% | 11 | 58.3% | 18 | 63.6% | 28 |
| Miami Dolphins | 73.7% | 32 | 58.7% | 19 | 46.2% | 7 |
| New York Giants | 65.0% | 30 | 58.9% | 20 | 47.1% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.0% | 19 | 59.0% | 21 | 28.6% | 1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 35.7% | 5 | 59.4% | 22 | 50.0% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 37.5% | 7 | 59.7% | 23 | 53.3% | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 38.9% | 8 | 60.7% | 24 | 63.2% | 27 |
| Denver Broncos | 45.0% | 13 | 60.9% | 25 | 53.6% | 15 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 45.5% | 14 | 61.3% | 26 | 53.8% | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 25.8% | 2 | 61.9% | 27 | 40.0% | 3 |
| Houston Texans | 50.0% | 19 | 63.0% | 28 | 75.0% | 31 |
| New Orleans Saints | 61.1% | 29 | 64.3% | 29 | 60.5% | 24 |
| New York Jets | 56.0% | 26 | 64.3% | 29 | 50.0% | 11 |
| New England Patriots | 52.6% | 22 | 67.3% | 31 | 46.2% | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 54.2% | 24 | 67.4% | 32 | 68.4% | 29 |
| NFL Average | 47.3% | 56.9% | 55.0% |
