FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Thursday Night
I want to have interesting things to cover for this game, but sadly it's not the Chiefs and Texans in Week 1 or even the facial hair debate between opposing quarterbacks like last week between the Dolphins and Jaguars. Instead, we have a battle of winless teams as the Denver Broncos hit the road to face the New York Jets for this Thursday Night Football single-game slate on FanDuel.
The Broncos are 1.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 39.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook, the lowest total of the week.
If you are new to the single-game slate, here is a brief rundown. The salary cap remains at $60,000 and scoring is unchanged from the full roster game, but we don't have to worry about individual positions. Instead, single-game slates feature five flex spots. Kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial. This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Let's break down this slate!
MVP Candidates
Melvin Gordon ($15,000): Gordon has handled more than 60 percent of the Broncos' running back snaps through three weeks. The injury to Phillip Lindsay has allowed Gordon to stay on the field even during passing downs, and he has seen at least three targets in every game. This week, the Broncos are turning to undrafted free agent Brett Rypien at quarterback. It's possible the game-plan will be to lean more on the running game and ease Rypien into NFL action. If so, Gordon has a pretty decent matchup against a Jets defense that gives up 27.4 FanDuel points per game to running backs. It will, however, be important to watch the status of Phillip Lindsay.
Sam Darnold ($14,000): The Jets have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this year, and watching Darnold's performance last Sunday, you can see why. Two of his interceptions were returned for a touchdown, but the team is sticking with their young quarterback. Down receivers Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder ($11,500), Darnold struggled in Week 3. But the Denver D has been a pass-funnel unit, ranking 4th against the run and 23rd versus the pass, per our numbers. If Crowder is able to go tonight, that should give Darnold a boost as the veteran receiver had 13 targets in his only game played this year. Darnold carries the highest projection of the night by our model (15.7 FanDuel points).
Brett Rypien ($12,000): The Boise State product and nephew of former NFL quarterback Mark Rypien will get his first NFL start tonight versus the Jets. In relief of Jeff Driskel late in last Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rypien completed eight of nine passes for 53 yards but was intercepted near the end zone. Playing on the road on a short week is not the ideal scenario for a great opening game. However, Rypien faces a Jets passing defense that ranks 30th against the pass, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. Rypien makes for an intriguing and likely contrarian MVP pick.
Value Plays
Noah Fant ($12,000): Fant's salary does not quite fit into the typical "value" territory, and if you feel brave enough, you could play him in the MVP slot. Fant leads the Broncos in receptions and receiving yards and is coming off a 10-target game Sunday against the Buccaneers. The Jets' defense has limited receiving yards to the tight end position but has allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the past two weeks.
Braxton Berrios ($10,500): Berrios has been the main benefactor of injuries to both Crowder and Perriman, notching 12 targets over the last two games. He's also found the end zone in both weeks, producing games of 14.4 and 14.9 FanDuel points. Crowder and Chris Hogan ($8,500) are both listed as questionable, meaning the young Miami (FL) Hurricanes product could be in line for a nice target projection against a Broncos defense that has permitted the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (37.7).
Chris Herndon ($7,500): Herndon leads the Jets ragtag group of pass catchers with 16 targets. However, the production from those targets leaves a lot to be desired. He's converted 10 of those targets into receptions but for only 63 yards. The positives? He has an 80% snap share, and the Broncos' defense has just four sacks on the season. If Darnold can buy some time, Herndon has a chance to get downfield and produce.
Ryan Bobbitt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Bobbitt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Drummerinabox. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
